Paul Ryan Needs Trump More Than Trump Needs Ryan

FiveThirtyEight: Assuming Trump wins Iowa

House Speaker Paul Ryan is not a big fan of Donald Trump that much is clear. He refused to back Trump during the Republican primaries and then held out on endorsing him even after Trump became the presumptive nominee. But eventually, Ryan did get behind Trump. And now, even after video of Trump bragging about being able to commit sexual assault has come to light, Ryan said he wont defend Trump, but he has refused to unendorse the GOP nominee. Trump responded by attacking Ryan on Twitter.

A reasonable person might ask why, if Ryan was reluctant to support Trump to begin with, the speaker of the House isnt washing his hands of the whole Trump campaign.

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But the answer is simple: Republican voters like Trump; Ryan risks losing the support of rank-and-file GOPers if he hits Trump too hard.

Trump is more popular among Republicans right now than Ryan is. In the most recent YouGov poll, for example, Trumps net favorability rating (the percentage of respondents who rate him favorably minus the share who have an unfavorable opinion) among Republican primary voters was +36 percentage points. Ryans was just +16 points. Perhaps more telling is that Trumps very favorable rating among this group is 34 percent, while Ryans is only 13 percent.

This means two things. First, Ryan really doesnt have as much credibility among Republicans as Trump does. Second, if forced to choose, Republicans would almost certainly choose Trump over Ryan.

Indeed, weve already seen Ryan struggle when he and Trump tussle. Take a look at Ryans net favorability among Republican primary voters since the Iowa caucuses in early February. Ive taken a five-poll rolling average of YouGov polls since that time.

Although the data is somewhat noisy (as we would expect when looking at a subpopulation), the pattern is fairly clear. Ryan is about as popular now as he was at the beginning of the primaries, but his favorability dipped to its lowest point right around the time he was refusing to endorse Trump after Trump wrapped up the nomination. Indeed, more Republican primary voters had a negative view of Ryan than a positive view in the YouGov poll conducted immediately after Trump became the presumptive nominee. It was only after endorsing Trump that Ryan regained some of his likability among Republican primary voters.

Should Ryan care about his popularity among Republicans nationwide given that he is only on the ballot in Wisconsin? The most immediate concern for Ryan is that, in a broad sense, he represents congressional Republicans. If Trump fans feel that Republicans in Washington arent backing Trump, it could cause them to withhold support from Republican candidates for the House and Senate. And if they get elected, these candidates could feel pressure from Trump-fan constituents not to back Ryan for re-election as House speaker.

Ryan might also want to run for president one day. Whether Republican officials in Washington like it or not, Trump voters are a large portion of the Republican base (thats why Trump won). Ryan may need their support to win the nomination and the general election. Otherwise, he might end up well, exactly where Trump is right now: As a GOP nominee bleeding Republican support.

Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/paul-ryan-needs-trump-more-than-trump-needs-ryan/

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The Vikings And Ravens Are In For A Rude Awakening

FiveThirtyEight Election: The General Election Is About To Hit The Home Stretch

The Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings are both 3-0 to start the year, two of just five undefeated teams remaining in the NFL. But given the way that both teams have played so far, there are a lot of questions about how sustainable their success will prove to be as the season continues.

Lets start with the Ravens. Although 27 other teams wish they had Baltimores record, Im not sure 27 other teams wish they had Baltimores team. Being 3-0 is great, but the Ravens have managed to achieve their perfect record while racking up about as few style points as possible.

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All three of Baltimores games have been close, with the team winning by a combined total of just 13 points. And its three opponents were Buffalo, Cleveland, and Jacksonville teams with a combined 1-8 record, all of whom ranked in the bottom six of last weeks ESPN Power Rankings. In fact, we noted back in July that the forgiving schedule should help Baltimore get off to a strong start.

What does history say about 3-0 teams that feasted on bad opponents? From 1990 to 2015, 63 teams started the season 3-0 against opponents that, like Baltimores foes, went 1-8 through three weeks.1 On average, those teams finished with 10.9 wins only a little worse than teams who had beaten better opponents:

OPPONENTS COMBINED RECORDTEAMS AVERAGE TOTAL WINS6-311.55-411.54-511.33-610.92-710.81-810.90-910.0Does schedule strength matter for 3-0 teams?

Opponents combined record is through the first three games of the season

Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com

So maybe the Ravens easy schedule isnt a big concern, but it is smart to be worried about their low points differential. The Ravens have the worst points differential of any 3-0 team since the 2004 Jaguars, who eventually finished the season 9-7. From 1990 to 2015, there were 119 teams that went 3-0 through three weeks, and only four of them the 2004 Jaguars, 1999 Patriots, 1993 Eagles and 1991 Bears had a lower points differential than Baltimore does this year.

If we use a simple linear regression between a 3-0 teams points differential through three games and its final win tally, wed expect Baltimore (at +13) to win 10 games, implying that theyd go only 7-6 the rest of the way.2 Things were even worse for the 10 lowest-ranked 3-0 teams by points differential: That group averaged just 6.3 wins over the rest of the season. So although Baltimore should be happy with its 3-0 record, a low points differential against a cupcake schedule is enough to fuel skepticism about the teams chances right now.

The Vikings success so far is based on equally unsustainable performances. Theyve compiled their 3-0 mark despite gaining only 796 yards of total offense, becoming only the fifth team since 1990 to start 3-0 with fewer than 800 offensive yards.3 Only one other team this year has played three games4 and produced fewer than 800 yards of offense: Los Angeles, with 788 and its never a good thing to be compared with the Rams lowly offense.

Minnesota ranks last in rushing yards per game and rushing yards per carry, so the running game hasnt powered the Vikings undefeated start. The offense is also in the hands of quarterback Sam Bradford, who hasnt managed many long stretches of competent play over his career. So how have the Vikings raced out to 3-0?

Bradford has a passer rating of 107.8 this year, far above his career rating of 81.6, but two games of solid play dont overshadow a career of underachievement. (His 22nd-place ranking in Total QBR also suggests that his lofty passer rating will come down to earth soon.) The biggest reasons for Minnesotas success, then, have little to do with the offense and a lot to do with a fluky scoring performance from its defense and special teams, as well as a sky-high turnover margin.

In terms of fluky scoring, so far this season, Minnesota has scored as many return touchdowns5 (three) as it has offensive touchdowns, and that trend is unlikely to continue. Even good defenses and special-teams units cant produce return touchdowns every week. Last year, Seattle and Arizona were the only teams with at least three return touchdowns through three games, and they combined for just five more the rest of the season. Digging deeper into history, from 1990 to 2015, there were 22 teams with exactly three return touchdowns after three games, and those teams averaged only 3.3 more return touchdowns the rest of the year.

As for the turnovers, the Vikings have an NFL-best +8 margin in that department through three weeks, and that trend is also unlikely to continue. From 1990 to 2015, 74 teams had a +6 or better turnover margin through three weeks. On average, those teams averaged +7.1 more takeaways than giveaways through three games, but they finished the year with a +9.5 margin. That means that over the remaining 13 games, those teams only had about 2.4 more takeaways than giveaways. Some of the Vikings early-season success has been built on performances that are simply not sustainable.

The good news for Minnesota? Last years Broncos showed that a defense-driven team can still win a Super Bowl, even when paired with a below-average offense. The Vikings defense leads the NFL in sack rate, and the run defense is allowing a mere 3.5 yards per carry. So it would be unfair to describe Minnesotas 3-0 start as entirely fluky, even if thats an accurate term for how the team has scored half of its touchdowns. That said, the Vikings have just two runs of 10 or more yards this year, tied with Jacksonville for the fewest in the NFL, and zero runs of 15 or more. And with only six passing plays of at least 20 yards, Minnesota ranks among the bottom three in the NFL in that category, too.

In other words, despite their 3-0 records, Minnesota and Baltimore are each playing with no margin for error right now. Eking out close victories or winning with turnovers and returns can work for a short while, but both methods are cause for plenty of doubts about the teams ability to be serious title contenders.

CORRECTION (Sept. 26, 11:15 p.m.): An earlier version of this article misstated the number of games that Sam Bradford has played through the first three weeks of the NFL season. It was two games, not three.

Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-vikings-and-ravens-are-in-for-a-rude-awakening/

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