Pence lays out Trump admin"s plan to do away with ObamaCare
Q. Why is it called reconciliation?
A. The term originated in the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974, which was intended to give Congress more control over the budget process by allowing lawmakers to set overall levels of spending and revenue.
The process begins with a budget blueprint, a resolution that guides Congress but is not presented to the president for a signature or veto. It recommends federal revenue, deficit, debt and spending levels in areas like defense, energy, education and health care.
The resolution may direct one or more committees to develop legislation to achieve specified budgetary results. By adopting these proposals, Congress can change existing laws so that actual revenue and spending are brought into line with reconciled with policies in the budget resolution.
Q. How has reconciliation been used?
A. Since 1980, Congress has completed action on 24 budget reconciliation bills. Twenty became law. Four were vetoed.
The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1981 was a vehicle for much of the Reagan revolution. It squeezed savings out of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, the school lunch program, farm subsidies, student loans, welfare and jobless benefits, among many other programs.
In 1996, Congress reversed six decades of social welfare policy, eliminating the individual entitlement to cash assistance for the nations poorest children and giving each state a lump sum of federal money with vast discretion over its use. Those changes were made in a reconciliation bill, pushed by Republicans but signed by President Bill Clinton.
Congress reduced deficits with another reconciliation bill, the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. That law also created the Childrens Health Insurance Program, primarily for uninsured children in low-income families. On the same day in 1997, Mr. Clinton signed a separate reconciliation bill that cut taxes.
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Peeling away pieces of the law could lead to market chaos.
The Bush tax cuts were adopted in reconciliation bills signed by President George W. Bush in 2001 and 2003.
On several occasions, Congress has increased assistance to low-income working families by increasing the earned-income tax credit in reconciliation bills.
Congress also made changes to the Affordable Care Act in a reconciliation bill passed immediately after President Obama signed the health care overhaul in 2010. Later, when Republicans controlled both houses of Congress, they passed a reconciliation bill to eviscerate the Affordable Care Act, but Mr. Obama vetoed the bill in January 2016.
Republicans say that measure will provide a template or starting point for their efforts to undo the health care law this year, with support from President-elect Donald J. Trump, who calls the law an absolute disaster.
Q. How does the reconciliation process work in the Senate?
A. In the House, leaders of the majority party can usually control what happens if their members stick together. In the Senate, by contrast, one member or a handful of senators can often derail the leaders plans. The reconciliation process enhances the power of the majority party and its leaders. Senate debate on a reconciliation bill is normally limited to 20 hours, so it cannot be filibustered on the Senate floor.
The Senate has a special rule to prevent abuse of the budget reconciliation process. The rule, named for former Senator Robert C. Byrd, Democrat of West Virginia, generally bars use of the procedure to consider legislation that has no effect on spending, taxes and deficits. The Senate parliamentarian normally decides whether particular provisions violate the Byrd rule, but the Senate can waive the rule with a 60-vote majority.
Q. What does this mean for the Affordable Care Act?
A. Republicans hope to use the fast-track procedure of budget reconciliation to repeal or nullify provisions of the law that affect spending and taxes. They could, for example, eliminate penalties imposed on people who go without insurance and on larger employers who do not offer coverage to employees.
They could use a reconciliation bill to eliminate tens of billions of dollars provided each year to states that have expanded eligibility for Medicaid. And they could use it to repeal subsidies for private health insurance coverage obtained through the public marketplaces known as exchanges.
Republicans could also repeal a number of taxes and fees imposed on certain high-income people and on health insurers and manufacturers of brand-name prescription drugs and medical devices: tax increases that help offset the cost of the insurance coverage expansions.
Those provisions were all rolled back in the reconciliation bill Mr. Obama vetoed last January. That bill did not touch insurance market standards established in the Affordable Care Act, which do not directly cost the government money or raise taxes. The standards stipulate, for example, that insurers cannot deny coverage or charge higher premiums because of a persons pre-existing conditions. Insurers must allow parents to keep children on their policies until the age of 26, and they cannot charge women higher rates than men, as they often did in the past.
Such provisions are politically popular, but it is not clear how they could remain in force without the coverage expansions that help insurers afford such regulations. Without an effective requirement for people to carry insurance, and without subsidies, supporters of the health law say many healthy people would go without coverage, knowing they could obtain it if they became ill and needed it.
Democrats say they will fight to preserve the law after Mr. Obama leaves office. Recent history shows that lobbying and public pressure can sometimes make a difference, altering the votes of individual lawmakers and changing the contents of a reconciliation bill.
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On the roster:Wither ObamaCare? - Clinton camp wanted to clean up Obama claim he didnt know about secret server - Pro-Trump outlet worked with liberal activist to sabotage Rubio -Newspaper claims Trump-backed PAC caught in Chinese donor sting-Thanks, Siri
WITHER OBAMACARE?ObamaCare is the most significant domestic policy overhaul of the past twenty years. And it looks increasingly like it will never be a central issue in even a single presidential campaign.
You could hardly call the announcement from the White House that ObamaCare premiums would skyrocket next year an October Surprise. On the state level, Republicans and Democrats alike have watched for months as the program came unwound. Faced with huge losses, insurance companies have simply opted out of the presidents signature plan.
But even so, the size of the forecast increases is pretty stunning. Double-digit premium hikes and a shrinking pool of providers has all the tell-tale signs of the much-discussed death spiral. Insurers are buckling under the weight of being forced to cover sick customers without offsetting profits from healthy patients who were supposed to be forced into the program by ObamaCare mandates.
It was exactly this kind of shock Democrats planned to avoid in 2012 by shoving the implementation of the most noisome parts of the law past the presidents re-election bid.
But just imagined what would have happened four years ago had this news fallen into the lap of Republican nominee Mitt Romney.
Now, Romney was certainly in a compromised position as it related to ObamaCare. When the president settled on his blueprint for the federal health law, he very intentionally chose one that had been once proposed by the conservative Heritage Foundation and implemented by Romney in Massachusetts.
When Obama made his choice for a consumer mandate in 2009, it was already clear that Romney was one of the frontrunners, if not the top contender, for the Republican nomination in 2012. Hanging the controversial, unpopular federal mandate on Romney was good short-term politics, but also a nice investment in Obamas re-election campaign.
But even a compromised Romney wouldve had no trouble wailing away on Obama for short-sighted planning, mismanagement and improvident expectations.
And it mightve really made a difference. Two weeks before the 2012 election, Romney trailed in an average of credible national polls by just a single point, as opposed to the current Republican nominees deficit of more than 6 points.
And in the RCP averages in the four dominant swing states, Romney led in Florida by 2 points and in North Carolina by 5 points. The former Massachusetts governor trailed in must-win Ohio by just over 2 points, and Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania was out of reach at a deficit of almost 6 points, but Romneys path to 270 was still certainly open with two weeks to go.
Compare that to Romneys successor as Republican nominee.
Donald Trumptrails Democratic opponentHillary Clinton in the RCP average for Florida by about 3 points and in North Carolina by 2 points. Trumps Pennsylvania deficit is about the same as Romneys and Trump is certainly doing better in Ohio, where he holds an advantage of about 1 point.
But if the election was held today, Clinton would already be above 300 electoral votes and potentially heading for the largest margin since 1996.
Trump and his campaign are trying to dive on the ObamaCare fumble to rally for a late touchdown drive. But they are starting on their own five yard line. Romney was in the red zone at this point in 2012, but couldnt figure out a way to punch through Obamas defenses.
The 2010 and 2014 midterm elections were largely litigated around ObamaCare, much to the chagrin of Democrats. The law has remained broadly unpopular, with nothing like the kind of buy-in that other major social welfare programs obtained.
The 2008 election did feature a major discussion on health care, at least in the Democratic primaries, but by the general election the septic financial system overshadowed any discussion about tax credits, or purchasing plans across state lines.
We cant be sure how much Trump will try to make out of ObamaCares unraveling, or if voters will really pay attention. Trumps dominant closing argument that he is not guilty of an alleged series of sexual assaults will certainly overshadow anything his policy shop might crank out on health care.
So in all likelihood, the most significant public policy change of the last generation will grind on into history without ever being the subject of a single presidential referendum.
THE RULEBOOK: PARDON TO ALL BUT YOUThe President is to be the commander-in-chief of the army and navy of the United States, and of the militia of the several States, when called into the actual service of the United States. He is to have power to grant reprieves and pardons for offenses against the United States, EXCEPT IN CASES OF IMPEACHMENTAlexander Hamilton,Federalist No. 69
TIME OUT: PEACE, OFFICERSIs the message of Black Lives Matter actually backfiring?The American Interest: IfColin Kaepernicks protest strategy is working, it hasnt showed up yet in public opinion polling. Respect for local law enforcement soared over the last yearto its highest level since 1968,accordingto a new survey fromGallup: Interestingly, changing opinions among Democrats and independents drove most of the increase. Republican respect for police, already overwhelming, ticked up only slightly, from 82 to 86 percent. Meanwhile, Democratic support surgedfrom 54 to 68 percent; among independents, from 60 to 75.The uptick was more pronounced among nonwhites than whitesif the movement had been successfully selling the public on the argument that law enforcementinflicts gratuitous violence against minorities on a large scale, we probably wouldntexpect such a marked pro-police turn in the polls.
Flag on the play? -Email us atHALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COMwith your tips, comments or questions
SCOREBOARDAverage of national head-to-head presidential polls:Clinton vs. Trump: Clinton +6.4 points[Polls included:IBD,ABC News,CNN,ARGandQuinnipiac University.]
Average of national four-way presidential polls:Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson vs. Stein: Clinton +6.2 points[Polls included:IBD,ABC News,CNN,Quinnipiac UniversityandFox News.]CLINTON CAMP WANTED TO CLEAN UP OBAMA CLAIM HE DIDN"T KNOW ABOUT SECRET SERVERWashEx: Hillary Clintons campaign expressed concerns overPresident Obamas statement to the press in March 2015 that he learned about Clintons private server from news reports, emails published by WikiLeaks on Tuesday show. Josh Schwerin, a campaign spokesman, sent an email to high-level staffers informing them of Obamas comments just a few days after the New York Times exposed Clintons private email use for the first time. POTUS just said he found out HRC was using her personal email when he saw it in the news, Schwerin wrote, using Clintons initials. Cheryl Mills, a board member at the Clinton Foundation, worried about the implications of Obamas claim in a subsequent email to John Podesta, Clintons campaign chair. [W]e need to clean this up - he has emails from her - they do not saystate.gov, Mills said. FBIagents revealed in notes from their closed investigative file that Obama communicated with Clinton on her private server using a pseudonym.
Pro-Trump outlet worked with liberal activist to sabotage Rubio - Politico: A liberal activist and organizer coordinated with reporters from the conservative news site Breitbart during the primaries to cover his disruptions of events for candidates such as Sen. Marco Rubio.Aaron Black,an associate with Democracy Partnersand a former Occupy Wall Street organizer, worked with the pro-Trump site Breitbart, tipping it off about his stunts, exchanging raw video and coordinating coverage, according to a source with direct knowledge of the situation. Black has resurfaced recently as one of the people featured in undercover video from the Project Veritas group. In the video, he claims to work for the Democratic National Committee.Newspaper claims Trump-backed PAC caught in Chinese donor sting -The Telegraph: Donald Trumps presidential campaign is facing a fundraising scandal after a Telegraph investigation exposed how key supporters were prepared to accept illicit donations from foreign backers.Senior figures involved with the Great America PAC, one of the leadingindependentgroups organising television advertisements and grassroots support for the Republican nominee, sought to channel $2 million from a Chinese donor into the campaign to elect the billionaire despite laws prohibiting donations from foreigners.In return, undercover reporters purporting to represent the fictitious donor were assured that he would obtain influenceif Mr.Trump made it to the White House.Test for Trump TV? Campaign unveils nightly fake newscast-Fox News: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump aired the first episode of a nightly news program on Facebook Live Monday amid speculation that the business mogul will start a media network after theNov. 8election."
AUDIBLE: NOT KIDDINGIf you look at her plans for Syria, these are the plans of a child.Donald Trump attacking Hillary Clinton at a rally in Tampa.
OK, honey. Then well win.Trump campaign managerKellyanne Conwayto CNN,quotingher candidates response to her chiding him for going off script to attack his sexual assault accusers in what was intended to be the speech framing the campaigns closing argument.PLAY-BY-PLAYPence to make late visit to Utah -Politico
Bernie prepared to be a liberal thorn in Hillarys side -WaPo
Early voting suggests tight races in key states -Fox News
How Fla. spun out of Trumps hands -Politico
More from WikiLeaks shows Clinton camp senior staff worried about diversity -Fox News
Reid promises to deploy nuclear option on Supreme Court if Dems take the Senate -The Hill
Poll shows Hillary widening lead in N.C. -NYT
Buuuut another survey shows the race still close -Monmouth University
Toomey focused on centrist record in debate -The Hill
Michigan GOP cancels election night party to put money into local races -Detroit NewsDavid Druckerexplains how Trump could hurt Calif. Republicans in House races -WashEx
Former top Pa. Dem sentenced to 23 months in prison -Philadelphia Inquirer
FROM THE BLEACHERSYou are too young to remember butnewspaper headlines [in the 1948 election] said Dewey Wins in a Landslide. When I look at history I cant find a President Dewey. David Lee, Hollister, Mo.
[Ed. note: Right you are Mr. Lee! The 1948 presidential election was the last time that public polling blew the call. And its kind of a fascinating story. Public opinion research was still in its relative infancy as the Gallup organization explored ways to measure voter sentiment. As they polled throughout the summer and into fall, RepublicanThomas Deweywas a prohibitive favorite over embattled incumbentHarry Truman. The race was so lopsided in fact that Gallup stopped polling weeks before the election.Trumans late surge went substantially unnoticed and shocked the nation. And believe me, since then, pollsters have learned their lesson and kept surveys in the field until the very end.]
Chris, You should be more careful in extolling the accuracy/ reliability of phone surveys versus online polling. Pew Research has done extensive research on the effect that interviewers have on sensitive or emotional questions. As an example, many phone respondents may be reluctant to admit they are likely to vote for Trump when being interviewed by a female or African American interviewer (which is most likely the vast majority of phone interviewers. The response is likely to be significantly more honest when answering an online poll, where there is no gasping at the respondents gross stupidity or racial hatred. Ive been in the opinion polling business for over forty years.Pete Booth, Atlanta
[Ed. note: You make an excellent point, Mr. Booth! One of the great appeals of online polling, as well as automated polling by telephone, is that it allows respondents to feel less social pressure from an interviewer. Certainly for market research and other functions, online polls have already proven their worth. But when it comes to accurately tracking or forecasting a presidential election, the disadvantages of online pollingtechnological barriers to participation for older and poor voters and suspicion of online solicitation among others -- means that good, old fashioned live interviewer telephone calls are still the best way to go.]
Trumps next book should be titled The Art of Snatching Defeat From theJaws of Victory. Ive never seen anyone do a better job of that not just once, but every time he managed to pull ahead! Peggie Hall, North Little Rock, Ark.
[Ed. note: Ms. Hall, you could have a future in marketing. But take it a little easier on Trump. He has never been ahead in an average of real polls, not since the day general election started in May. Thats not to say that it hasnt been much closer than its been in the closing weeks. And that"s certainly not to say that Trump didnt squander some opportunities. But Republicans start every election at a disadvantage because of the electoral map and the demographics of the electorate. The GOPs selection of such an unconventional candidate was hoped by some to ameliorate some of those deficiencies. But so far, thats not been the case.]
Share your color commentary:Email us atHALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COMand please make sure to include your name and hometown.
THANKS, SIRIThe Denver Channel: According to ablogpost byChristoph Bartneck, an assistant professor at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand, his recently published paper on Nuclear Physics was written entirely by iOSs autocorrect function. Bartneck says he was contacted by the International Conference on Atomic and Nuclear Physics and asked to submit a paper for publishing. Despite having no knowledge on the subject, he went to work writing. Bartneck opened the Notes app on his iPhone, and began by typing the word Atomic. Then, he completed the sentence only by using iOS autocorrects word suggestionsAfter lifting a diagram from the nuclear physics article on Wikipedia, Bartneck submitted his paper for publication. It was approved three hours later.AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLESWho ordered the duck is the big question which you would expect to hear at a dinner party, but not at the center of a national campaignCharles Krauthammeron Special Report withBret Baier.
Chris Stirewaltis digital politics editor for Fox News.Sally Personscontributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign uphere.
Chris Stirewalt joined Fox News Channel (FNC) in July of 2010 and serves as digital politics editor based in Washington, D.C. Additionally, he authors the daily "Fox News First" political news note and hosts "Power Play," a feature video series, on FoxNews.com. Stirewalt makes frequent appearances on the network, including "The Kelly File," "Special Report with Bret Baier," and "Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace." He also provides expert political analysis for Fox News coverage of state, congressional and presidential elections.
Donald Trump speaks during an campaign event with employees at Trump National Doral, Tuesday in Miami. Evan Vucci/AP hide caption
toggle caption Evan Vucci/AP
Donald Trump speaks during an campaign event with employees at Trump National Doral, Tuesday in Miami.
Evan Vucci/AP
Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump seized on rising health insurance premiums Tuesday as evidence that "Obamacare is just blowing up."
But the general manager of a Trump golf course in Florida corrected his boss for suggesting that Trump"s own employees would be personally affected.
"All of my employees are having a tremendous problem with Obamacare," Trump told reporters during an appearance at the National Doral Golf Club in Miami. "What they"re going through with their health care is horrible because of Obamacare."
In fact, the club"s general manager David Feder said "more than 95 percent" of the club"s employees receive health insurance through the company, so they"re not affected by the sharp premium increases on government-run exchanges.
The Obama administration announced this week that premiums for 2017 on those exchanges will increase by an average of 22 percent nationwide.
Trump called that number an understatement.
"That is such a phony number," Trump said. "You"re talking about 60, 70, 80 percent in increases."
Customers in some states will see increases in that range, but the premiums vary widely from state to state. The benchmark plan in Arizona will cost 116 percent more next year. Premiums in Indiana and Massachusetts are actually going down by about 3 percent.
The average increase of 22 percent nationwide follows much smaller increases of 7.5 percent this year and 2 percent in 2015. When Obamacare began, many insurance companies priced their policies too low and ended up losing money. Today"s premiums are roughly in line with what government forecasters initially predicted.
The administration notes that most people who buy insurance on the government-run exchanges receive subsidies, which could offset some or all of the price increase.
But Trump, like other critics of the Affordable Care Act, is not impressed.
"Obamacare has to be repealed and replaced," Trump told reporters. "Otherwise, this country is in even bigger trouble than anybody thought."
Trump"s health care plan calls for an expansion of Health Savings Accounts, which allow consumers to buy insurance with pre-tax dollars. He would also allow insurance companies to market their policies across state lines.
That would not necessarily help many of the 20 million people who gained health care coverage under the Affordable Care Act, pushing the nation"s uninsured rate to an all-time low.
A key deadline for signing up for Obamacare insurance got a bit squishier Monday, as the nation's biggest insurance marketplace gave some slack to customers enrolling over the phone, and several individual states granted all their customers more time.
Monday is the deadline for people in most of the United States to sign up for individual and family Obamacare insurance plans that take effect Jan. 1.
If people don't meet that deadline, or some of the later ones this week set by individual states, they will have to wait until Feb. 1 at the earliest for their insurance to go into effect.
By midday, the federal insurance exchange, HealthCare.gov, which serves two-thirds of the U.S., appeared to be working smoothly, as did a number of other state-run exchanges.
Nonetheless, within hours, a number of state-run exchanges had effectively extended their Monday deadlines in the face of strong demand, among them California, whose marketplace has the largest number of Obamacare enrollees in the United States
California's exchange will give applicants who began the sign-up process by midnight Monday until midnight Sunday to finish enrollment, according to officials. The extension is being granted on the honor systemthe exchange won't be auditing applicants to see if they actually met the criteria.
"We know we've got a lot of people in the pipeline," a spokesman told CNBC.com Monday evening. The spokesman noted that in the past eight days, as the deadline approached, Covered California exchange had signed up 42,000 people, which is more than 80 percent of the number of people who signed up in the first two-and-a-half weeks of enrollment.
"We've just seen a real strong surge," the spokesman said.
Monday remained the deadline for signing up online at HealthCare.gov.
But late in the day, the agency that runs that site announced a grace period for people who were trying to start or finish an application or enroll.
"As we have anticipated, we are seeing very high consumer demand on HealthCare.gov and at the call center for people looking to meet the deadline," said a spokesman for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
"Because the call center is experiencing longer-than-normal wait times, some callers are being asked to leave their contact information so they do not have to wait," the spokesman said. "We will call them back at a convenient time starting tomorrow and if they select a plan their coverage will still begin on January 1. Consumers can also shop for coverage and select a plan on HealthCare.gov anytime until midnight Pacific time tonight."
New York's exchange had last week extended its deadline from Monday until next Saturday. The exchange cited snowstorms that slammed the western part of the state recently.
Several other statesMassachusetts, Idaho, Rhode Island, Maryland and Washingtonalready had extended deadlines as well, to as late as Dec. 23 in some cases.
Read MoreObamacare's Gruber subpoenaed
Those states got some company as Monday went on.
At Connecticut's state-run Obamacare exchange, "we are seeing very high volume," said Jason Madrak, a spokesman for the exchange earlier Monday,
"As it relates to Web traffic, we typically see between 300-400 concurrent users on our site at any given time on a normal day. Today, we are seeing 750-850 concurrent users," Madrak said in an email. "For call center activity, as of 10 a.m. this morning, we had already seen 4,986 calls come in. To put that in perspective, we had 15,000 calls come in the entire week after Thanksgiving, so we could be poised to handle a week's worth of volume in one day."
By Monday afternoon, Connecticut's exchange announced a "grace period" for applicants.
"If customers have an application started and select a plan before midnight tonight, they can still get coverage beginning Jan. 1, as long as they complete the application and get us all the relevant information by midnight this Friday, Dec. 19," said Jim Wadleigh, acting CEO of the exchange.
Shortly after Connecticut's move, Minnesota's state-run exchange said it was extending its sign-up deadline until 4:30 p.m. Saturday.
We want to give Minnesotans that qualify for financial help as much time as possible to enroll in January 1 coverage," said Scott Leitz, CEO of the MNSure exchange, who added that the extension is not in response to system issues or technical problems.
"TheMNsure system continues to be stable and the vast majority of people coming through the system are doing so without issue," said Leitz. "This change is simply to allow folks that qualify for financial help more time."
