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Monday, May 23, 2016

French Open 2016: Murray, Watson and Wawrinka in action on day two live!

Novak Djokovic Tennis French Open :"I am on a mission..."

8.54am EDT08:54

A glimpse into the inconsistency of Grigor Dimitrov: he took the first set 6-2 against Victor Troicki and hes dropped the second 6-3. Will he ever fulfil his potential? Meanwhile Leonardo Mayer has closed out the second set 6-3 against Jeremy Chardy to level it up on Court 1.

Updatedat 8.55am EDT

8.53am EDT08:53

Crisis over for Garbine Muguruza? Not quite. She broke for a 2-0 lead in the second set, but Anna Karolina Schmiedlova has broken straight back.

8.50am EDT08:50

Theyre all level on Philippe-Chatrier, Wawrinka wrapping up the second set to the tune of 6-1. Youd have to fancy him now. Stans stirred.

8.48am EDT08:48

Milos Raonic is cruising against Janko Tipsarevic, winning the second set to lead 6-2, 6-3. No drama there. Meanwhile Wawrinka has woken up; he breaks again in the second set to lead 5-1 against Rosol, whos in dire need of a second win now.

8.46am EDT08:46

Quite the turnaround on Court 17, where Christina McHale took the first set on a tie-break against Myrtille Georges, whos responded by winning the second 6-0. Oof.

8.44am EDT08:44

Jeremy Chardy and Grigor Dimitrov both took the opening set against Leonardo Mayer and Victor Troicki respectively. But the second set isnt going to plan for either man; Mayer leads 4-1, while Troicki is up a break at 4-3.

8.40am EDT08:40

A mammoth fourth game in the second set, full of missed opportunities from both men, ends with Wawrinka breaking for a 3-1 lead over Rosol. Is he finding his feet at last? Allez, he yelps, really belting it out and prolonging the cry. It feels like a pivotal moment.

8.30am EDT08:30

Im back, armed with leek and potato soup, ready to tell you that Garbine Muguruza is a set down against Anna Karolina Schmiedlova, whos won the opener 6-3 against the fourth seed. Interesting. Very interesting. Meanwhile Sabine Lisicki is sinking fast, a set and a break down against Veronica Cepede Royg, while Americas Sloane Stephens has just won the first set 6-4 against Margarita Gasparyan and Jeremy Chardy is a set up against Leonardo Mayer.

Updatedat 8.44am EDT

8.16am EDT08:16

Looking to serve out the opening set, Rosol coolly rattles into a 30-0 lead. But back comes Wawrinka, ominously winning the next two points. Hes not moving too sharply, though, and Rosol winds up a big forehand, wrongfooting the Swiss to earn his first set point. He takes the risky move of approaching the net, with the ball bouncing up invitingly on the Wawrinka backhand the ball fizzes past Rosol but when he turns to look over his shoulder, hes delighted and relieved to see it flash past the baseline! The first set is Rosols, 6-4, and Wawrinka is in a spot of bother. Meanwhile Grigor Dimitrov is looking impressive on Court 3, winning the first set 6-2 against an underwhelming Victor Troicki.

8.10am EDT08:10

Wawrinka holds. Hes hanging in there. But Lukas Rosol will serve for the first set at 5-4.

8.07am EDT08:07

Its so often the case: Milos Raonics dominance on serve means that he only requires one break to take the set. He wins the opener 6-3 against Janko Tipsarevic and the No8 seed will be anticipating an easy ride from here.

8.05am EDT08:05

Victor Troicki breaks back against Grigor Dimitrov. And then loses his serve to love. Ah. That wasnt the plan for the 22nd seed. Dimitrov leads 4-2 on Court 3. I wonder if the rain delay is affecting certain players.

8.02am EDT08:02

On Court 1, Jeremy Chardy, the 30th seed, leads by a break against Leonardo Mayer. Thought youd like to know. On Suzanne-Lenglen, meanwhile, Anna Karolina Schmiedlova has broken early on against the 4th seed, Garbine Muguruza. Could we be in for a day of shocks?

8.00am EDT08:00

And Rosol holds for a 4-2 lead. Wawrinka is all over the place at the moment.

7.58am EDT07:58

Come on! chirps Wawrinka, looking to rouse himself out of his torpor, and he responds by carving out a break point with some thunderous hitting. Rosol saves it with a superb forehand winner down the line, though, and its deuce.

7.55am EDT07:55

Sabine Lisicki doesnt really like the red stuff. The former Wimbledon finalist is already struggling on Court 15, a break down against Paraguays Veronica Cepede Royg.

7.53am EDT07:53

Pure brilliance from Rosol seals the first break! The underdog keeps his cool to attack a Wawrinka second serve and then catches his Swiss adversary out of position with a deft drop shot for a 3-2 lead in the first set. Is an upset on the cards? Wawrinka is out of sorts so far. Its early days, mind you.

7.51am EDT07:51

Milos Raonic is in charge on Court 2. The robotic Canadian breaks for a 3-1 lead over Janko Tipsarevic. On Philippe-Chatrier, Lukas Rosol is pushing for a breakthrough. Wawrinka is looking sluggish. He staved off a break point in the first game and hes struggling on serve in the fifth game. Its deuce and Rosol has seen one break point come and go...

7.44am EDT07:44

Elsewhere Grigor Dimitrov is playing 22nd seed Victor Troicki on Court 3. Dimitrov, who was closing in on a top 10 place two years ago, isnt even seeded this time. But the 25-year-old Bulgarian has made a promising start today, an early break setting up a 2-0 lead in the first set.

7.41am EDT07:41

An intriguing contest on Court 2, where the rising Milos Raonic is taking on Janko Tipsarevic, whose career was put on hold by a foot injury that could have led to retirement. I say foot injury - he had to have a benign tumour removed. Tipsarevic has been a top 10 player in the past and its been a long road back for the Serbian. h**l probably just be delighted to be playing a grand slam. Its unlikely h**l be sharp enough to cope with Raonic today. But what a story it would be if he does beat the Canadian.

7.37am EDT07:37

Play has begun on the show courts and the outside courts. Wawrinka, remember, warmed up for this event by beating Marin Cilic in the final of the Geneva Open. But his results have been a little patchy this year. He was beaten by Juan Monaco in Rome and by Nick Kyrgios in Madrid. Still, hes off to a decent start here, saving a break point to win the first game on Philippe-Chatrier.

7.32am EDT07:32

Tok! Tok! Tok! Under grey skies, theyre knocking up.

7.25am EDT07:25

The following matches have been cancelled because of the inclement weather today:

7.21am EDT07:21

Here come the players! Lukas Rosol I dont need to tell you about his biggest achievement to date, do I? is on Philippe-Chatrier and hes followed by Stan Wawrinka, the defending champion. There arent many people in the stands yet, so the players are only greeted by a smattering of applause. But maybe the fans are disappointed that Wawrinka isnt wearing his pyjama shorts this year.

7.16am EDT07:16

Tournament director Guy Forget has been chatting to the press. Its urgent to build a roof by respect for our audience, he says, before revealing that red tape is getting in the way of all that. Ah.

7.13am EDT07:13

The covers are off. The ball kids are getting ready. Its almost time.

7.11am EDT07:11

Dustin Brown is clearly the greatest showboater on the tour. an utter genius when hes on form, check this out from yesterday, says Pete Jones.

Thats rather spectacular.

7.02am EDT07:02

Slowly, slowly, wonderfully, the covers are coming off. We might have some tennis soon! If so, it will be followed by more rain.

6.59am EDT06:59

It appears that theres some movement at last. Keep scrubbing!

6.49am EDT06:49

This is absolutely magnificent. Carlos Berloq loses it after losing the second point of the match.

6.39am EDT06:39

Kevin Mitchell isnt optimistic about the chances of play starting any time soon.

6.22am EDT06:22

The latest weather update indicates that there will be no play before 12pm BST (1pm in Paris). Il pleut. Il pleut beaucoup! Gah.

6.20am EDT06:20

As a fan from the US, has tennis become more popular in the UK due to Murrays success? says Olga. That does not seem to be the case in the US. ESPN is reducing its coverage of tennis, NBCs coverage is embarrassing. In terms of favourites, Djokovic has to be the favourite, but Murray has a real chance. I would place Stan and Rafa at the next level. Sleepers could be Nishikori, Thiem, and Kyrgios. The weather looks bad most of the day. Why are there no lights at least in Paris? I would love to see Rafa win La Decima, but sadly dont see it. Andys win would be great too.

Im not sure if tennis has become more popular because of Murray. After all, who can forget the thrill of watching Tim Henman lose in the semi-finals of Wimbledon year after year, before watching Tim Henman lose in the quarter-finals of Wimbledon year after year, then the second round, and finally the first round? Admittedly, though, the emergence of Murray has allowed us to discover things like the Australian Open and the French Open and the US Open and the Davis Cup and the Olympics and Masters events, tournaments that most Brits who werent alive in the 1930s had never heard of before, say, 2005.

6.11am EDT06:11

In the spirit of open journalism, can anyone recommend a summer coat for me?

5.59am EDT05:59

Nick Kyrgios. He loves a tweener. Heres one from the little scamps victory yesterday.

Updatedat 5.59am EDT

5.37am EDT05:37

The Guardians tennis correspondent, Kevin Kev Mitchell, is living it up in Paris at the moment. Thats not news. But this is: his preview of todays rain-soaked action. In a disappointing development, Wawrinka yesterday resisted the temptation to start a war of words with Djokovic, instead saying that the world No1 is the favourite to win this title. Djokovic is due to face Rafael Nadal in the semis, having crunched the nine-time champion in the quarters last year. Would you give a revived Nadal any hope against the best player in the world this year?

Related: Novak Djokovic is favourite for my French Open title, says Stan Wawrinka

5.27am EDT05:27

While we wait, lets relive the greatest weather forecast of all time.

4.10am EDT04:10

Look, I could begin by trumpeting Andy Murrays chances of winning his first French Open. The world No2 was victorious against Novak Djokovic in Rome last week and begins his campaign against the veteran Czech, Radek Stepanek. We could move on to defending champ, Stan Wawrinka, who will be taking on Lukas Rosol. Heather Watson returns a break down in the third set of her match against Nicole Gibbs, whos serving at 2-1. We could have matches involving Kei Nishikori, Garbine Muguruza, Kyle Edmund, Agniezska Radwanska, Milos Raonic, Simona Halep, Roberta Vinci, Grigor Dimitrov and Sara Errani to look forward to. But its raining, the covers are on at Roland Garros, Eurosport are showing a repeat of last years mens final and play isnt due to start until 11.30am BST at the earliest. Bah!

Updatedat 5.14am EDT

Source: http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&fd=R&ct2=us&usg=AFQjCNFUCRDYlOKQm-hSGrWOi2pmF1oyTA&clid=c3a7d30bb8a4878e06b80cf16b898331&cid=52779115127804&ei=ff5CV_irDufC3AGOwaTYDQ&url=https://www.theguardian.com/sport/live/2016/may/23/french-open-2016-andy-murray-heather-watson-and-stan-wawrinka-in-action-on-day-two-live

"Bachelorette" 2016 Spoilers And Speculation: JoJo Fletcher"s Final Rose Ceremony Takes Place, Will Her Pick Be The ...

Best of Bachelorette 2016 - Sendung 4

It is almost time for JoJo Fletchers journey during ABCs The Bachelorette 2016 season to begin, and fans cannot wait to get started. Will she find love with one of her suitors this spring? Blogger and gossip guru Reality Steve Carones spoilers are breaking down the details, and he just shared a fair amount of the scoop via Twitter. The final rose ceremony has been filmed, but has it leaked out yet which guy she picked?

Reality Steves spoilers have already pinned down Fletchers last four bachelors, but he has yet to share specifics beyond that other than the fact that the last dates have taken place. Thailand was seemingly the location for the fantasy suite overnight dates and everything else through the final rose ceremony. More details should be coming out about those last eliminations soon, but rumors are already swirling.

As Carbones Bachelorette spoilers have been teasing for some time now, JoJo seemingly had one bachelor in particular who caught her attention from the very first night. Jordan Rodgers, a former football player and the younger brother of Green Bay Packers superstar Aaron Rodgers, is said to be that guy. It is known that Jordan is around for a while during Fletchers journey to find love. Now, Reality Steves spoilers indicate that based on everything he is hearing, he would be surprised if he didnt get the final rose.

Don"t know the ending yet. Hope 2 get it confirmed this wknd. But after evrything I"ve heard all season, I"d be shocked if it wasn"t Jordan

RealitySteve (@RealitySteve) May 13, 2016

Steve had previously mentioned that this was looking like the JoJo and Jordan show based on what he was hearing from insiders, but then he also teased some potential shake-ups and shockers. His Bachelorette spoilers detail that Rodgers caught Fletchers attention from the very first night of filming, and he managed to get in some hot and heavy kisses with her before the first rose ceremony even took place.

Monday I"ll post a few more details about the first ep, but those are the basics. It was the JoJo and Jordan show right from the beginning

RealitySteve (@RealitySteve) May 13, 2016

Oh yeah, Jordan made out with her at the cocktail party the second time he talked to her. Wanted to kiss her the first time but didn"t.

RealitySteve (@RealitySteve) May 13, 2016

So basically from night 1, it was all about if there was anyone there who could take down Jordan as the front runner, bc it was clear as day

RealitySteve (@RealitySteve) May 13, 2016

It may well be that Fletcher and Rodgers end up being together at the end. If that is the case, they are likely engaged. However, Carbone has not yet been able to confirm that. The Bachelorette spoiler fans over at the Bach and Bachette Fan Forums have been watching all of these contestants closely and they have been anxious to pin down these last eliminations as well. They noticed that Luke Pell was the first to start making small moves on social media and they now indicate that the other three final guys, Rodgers, Chase McNary, and Robby Hayes, have all started back on social media in small ways as well.

Hayes was the first of those three to start changing some minor things on his Instagram and Twitter, sparking speculation that he ended up being eliminated after the overnight dates. Could Rodgers and McNary be Fletchers final two on this spring Bachelorette season? She seemingly showed some activity on Snapchat within the past day or two as well, so it does appear that she and her guy have their phones back. There have not yet been any significant posts that the average fan would notice as of yet, but it seems likely that they all will be back to regular activity very soon.

Does Jordan Rodgers get JoJo Fletchers final rose as most seem to suspect, or could there be a shocker as things play out this spring? ABCs The Bachelorette 2016 season debuts on Monday, May 23 and fans cannot wait to dive into this one to see if a true love story emerges.

[Image via JoJo Fletchers Instagram]

Source: http://www.inquisitr.com/3094968/bachelorette-2016-spoilers-and-speculation-jojo-fletchers-final-rose-ceremony-takes-place-will-her-pick-be-the-obvious-one/

Sergio Garcia"s victory continued a trend of international players winning the Byron Nelson

Sergio Garcia"s chip shot leads to a birdie at AT&T Byron Nelson

By Brad Townsend , Staff Writer Contact Brad Townsend on Twitter:

IRVING -- Although this was the first Nelson playoff since 2011 (when Keegan Bradley beat Ryan Palmer), it was the 20th playoff in tournament history.

Eighteen of those have occurred since 1968, the most on the PGA Tour during that span. Second-most is the Shell Houston Open"s 17 playoffs.

Trend continues

While most fans were pulling for Dallas native Jordan Spieth to win for the first time in Texas, Sergio Garcia"s victory continued a trend of international players winning the event.

Dating to 2000, foreign-born players have won 10 Nelsons, including Garcia"s 2004 and 2016 wins.

Six of those wins have come in the last nine years. Spain"s Garcia joins Australian Adam Scott (2008), South African Rory Sabbatini (2009), Australian Jason Day (2010), South Korean Sang-Moon Bae (2013) and Australian Steven Bowditch (2015).

Just dessert

When Garcia arrived at the Four Seasons this week, waiting in his room was a dessert-replica of a photo that was taken of him and Byron Nelson at the trophy presentation when Garcia won in 2004.

The frame of the photo was made of chocolate and the photo replica is made of edible sugar, made by Four Seasons chef Christof Syre and his pastry team. Early in the week, Garcia said he was trying hard not to eat it.

Garcia said he got another nice surprise on Friday when he received a good-luck letter from Momentous Institute youngster who caddied for Garcia earlier in the week on the 17thhole.

"It was an amazing letter," Garcia said.

And what became of the photo-dessert.

"I"ve taken a couple of bites, but just on the corner," Garcia said. "I couldn"t help myself."

Bud"s week

Bud Cauley is listed at 5-7, 150 pounds, but looks smaller in person. This, however, was a big week for him, culminating with his tie for fourth place Sunday.

He is playing this season on a major medical extension, after having shoulder surgery in 2014 and taking more than a year away from competitive golf.

He had 17 events in which to earn 458 FedExCup points or $742,470 to regain his tour card. The $264,625 he earned Sunday leaves him $323,828 or 258 FedExCup points shy of earning his card. He has 10 starts remaining.

Twitter: @townbrad

This Topic is Missing Your Voice. View Comments

Source: http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/other-sports/golf/2016/05/22/sergio-garcias-victory-continued-trend-international-players-winning-byron-nelson

"The Bachelorette" 2016 Spoilers: JoJo Fletcher"s Final Four Are Revealed, Which One Is A Final Rose Frontrunner?

Best Of Bachelorette 2016 - Sendung 1

ABCs The Bachelorette 2016 season premieres soon, and JoJo Fletcher will be handing out roses as she looks for love. Reality Steves spoilers are already revealing the scoop as filming takes place, and now the final four bachelors for Season 12 have been revealed. Which four guys are said to be getting hometown dates this time around?

While Reality Steve Carbones spoilers have not yet broken down all of the juicy details regarding JoJo Fletchers final four guys, he has teased Bachelorette spoilers that things are being done a bit differently in Season 12. As fans remember, the hometown dates were completely shaken up during Kaitlyn Bristowes journey.

However, it sounds like Fletchers dates will be a bit closer to the norm. Filming reportedly took an extra day in Florida with one of the hometown dates, but Steves Bachelorette spoilers detail that it was simply due to some filming equipment not arriving on time.

According to Reality Steves spoilers, the final four guys for JoJos Bachelorette season include Jordan Rodgers, Robby Hayes, Luke Pell, and Chase McNary. The first date filmed was reportedly Chases in Castle Rock, Colorado, and Robbys hometown date in Jacksonville, Florida, has already taken place, as well. Lukes outing in Austin, Texas, was filmed over the weekend, and Jordans will take place last in Chico, California.

It will come as little surprise to Bachelorette spoiler fans that Rodgers will be getting a hometown date. Reality Steves spoilers called this one from the beginning, given the fact that Jordan happens to be the younger brother of Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

This most certainly reminds some fans of Andi Dorfmans time as the Bachelorette lead, when she picked Josh Murray, brother to Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Aaron Murray. Granted, Aaron Rodgers is a superstar in the NFL, while Murrays career is still in the very early stages, but it will not be much of a shock to see Jordan garner some attention this spring.

While it is too soon to know which guy will get Fletchers final rose, Carbones Bachelorette spoilers have already detailed that it has been the JoJo and Jordan show up to this point during filming. He said similar things last season with Ben Higgins and Lauren Bushnell, and as he predicted, she was the last one standing at the final rose ceremony. Does that mean that Rodgers will score the final rose this spring?

Spoilers should be breaking down more specifics soon, and fans will be very curious to hear whether Luke, Chase, or Robby have a true shot at that final rose. As it happens, Jordan isnt the only Bachelorette contestant this spring who has a bit of fame in some sense. Luke is a country singer who released his first album in 2015, his website notes. Reality Steves spoilers detail that both Robby and Chase are sales reps with somewhat less flashy backgrounds, so viewers will be curious to see whether they can really compete with the other two guys.

Of course, Bachelorette fans will be buzzing about whether Aaron Rodgers and his girlfriend, actress Olivia Munn, will be at Jordans hometown date. That would make for one buzzworthy episode, but Carbones spoilers say that it sounds unlikely that Aaron and Olivia will be at the California hometown date with JoJo and Jordan. There are always dramatic and emotional moments that emerge from these hometown dates, and fans will be anxious to get the scoop as filming continues.

Interestingly, Reality Steves spoilers do tease that there is some messy stuff going on with the narrative this spring, and he will reveal more when he sees which direction the show heads. Will there be some sort of blindside and drama like what everybody got during Desiree Hartsocks Bachelorette season related to Brooks Forester? Even show creator Mike Fleiss is teasing that some interesting things are taking place as filming continues and viewers cannot wait to get more scoop.

Is Fletcher sincere in finding love and will she leave the show happily engaged? The spoiler guru isnt sharing anything more specific yet, but Bachelorette spoiler fans will be anxious to find out more when Reality Steve does dish out details. ABCs The Bachelorette 2016 season starring JoJo Fletcher premieres on Monday, May 23, and fans cannot wait to see if she is able to find love this spring.

[Image via JoJo Fletcher/Instagram]

Source: http://www.inquisitr.com/3031498/the-bachelorette-2016-spoilers-jojo-fletchers-final-four-are-revealed-which-one-is-a-final-rose-frontrunner/

Sunday, May 22, 2016

Poll positions

Kentucky Derby 2016 Horse Race VIDEO
T.A. Barnhart

Polls can"t predict this.

There are polls, and then there are polls. The media tosses them all out regardless of their substance or quality, so people assume all polls are created equal. Far from it. Here are a few things to know about polls.

People lie to pollsters. This is dumb, because the two people on opposite ends of the phone call do not know each other. They will never meet. The pollster has too many calls to make to care what any particular respondent is saying. The respondent should be able to speak with candor and honesty knowing that his or her answers will be anonymous data and no one will ever know how they answered.

Still, people lie to pollsters. Its a human thing, to say what you think people want to hear or expect to hear. Or to not say things that you know might not be popular or socially acceptable. Such as, Do you think black people are inferior to white people? Ask someone that in a televised person-on-the-street format, and theyll say Of course not because who wants to be on tv (and then YouTube) saying, Yup, white people is superior? So they lie to the camera.

And they lie to the pollster. They have no reason to do so, but they do. The pollster doesnt care; they have a job to do, and this is todays set of questions for todays set of phone numbers. Youre a racist? I have work to do. But voicing unpopular sentiments is difficult to do, so even in this setting, people lie. Thats why youll see polls that show support for a ballot measure that would benefit some minority population and then, on election day, the measure fails. People had been lying to pollsters all along.

Good polls are expensive and difficult. Respondents lying to pollsters is just one of my problems facing a good pollster. A dependable poll can be done with a bit over 400 respondents; the trick is finding the right 400 respondents. First, to get 400 people to answer the poll, probably ten times are many phone calls need to be made to get past busy signals, no answers, disconnected numbers, hang-ups, etc. Then the pollster has to spend 20 minutes or so asking questions. This means a team of people on phones, in front of computers, dialing and talking, over and over.

That dont come cheap.

On top of which, a single poll, however well its done, is just that: a single poll. Scientists never rely on a single research study to draw conclusions about a hypothesis; multiple studies need to be done, and its from the many different studies that reliable conclusions can be drawn. Political polls are the same: the more polls on a particular campaign or issue, the better our knowledge. Nate Silver and his peers have developed means to aggregate polls in order to get reliable information.

Multiple polls repeated multiple times in order to get good data that leads to strong inferences; again, that dont come cheap.

(How the questions are phrased, or even which questions are asked, are critical to what data is gleaned. But thats a topic for not merely another blog post but for hundreds of books. Feel free to read up on the problem if you want.)

People love to be part of a bandwagon. Bernie Sanders supporters have been crowing for some time about how hes surging in the polls. And yes, part of that is that it took a long time for people to learn anything about him, think about his campaign promises, and then to compare him and his promise to Hillary Clinton. The massive lead she once held was never going to hold up once he started to become familiar to voters.

But then his surge zoomed, and for supporters there was a single reason: voters are learning that hes the right person for the presidency and people are thrilled to desert Clinton. This is true of many of those telling pollsters they now support him, but so is this: People want to back a winner. They want to be part of the new, exiting, and, they think, winning team. Who wants to back a loser?

The trouble with this viewpoint is that its more than transitory; it reflects an emotional response to the campaign that people are feeling today. Will they feel that way in a week or a month? That depends. Clinton loses big in New Hampshire, so Sanders surges nationally. On Saturday, after she wins big in South Carolina, what do they think then? Or a few days later, if one or the other dominates Super Tuesday, which bandwagon do people hop on?

This leads to another truth about polling:

Horserace polls are stupid. Its one thing to poll voters about two nominees in the weeks prior to an election. By that time, voters know most of what they need to know and theyre getting ready to vote. The best polling firms know how to ask questions that will give them solid information. But more than half-a-year before the election, and with multiple candidates still in the running, and very few primaries or caucuses having been conducted? And the candidates have only visited a few states?

It doesnt take much to change the horserace. A gaffe, a revelation, a bad debate performance, an unexpected primary result. h**l, maybe a really awesome commercial Yes, we can or even an amazing speech again, Yes, we can. What was amazing about Obamas Yes, we can speech was that it came after a pretty solid defeat. But he took that moment and used it to change his campaign. The chants at the beginning of the speech were O-ba-ma; before he was done, his campaign was defined by Yes, we can. His defeat ended up sounding like a victory rally.

A single moment can change the horserace. We dont know which candidate will do something awful or wonderful in the next few hours or days or when. We dont know what outside events might bring new considerations to the minds of voters. So the horserace today is exactly that: the horserace today. For supporters, to be ahead now is exciting and better than not being in first. But what does it mean in the long run?

For many candidates whove led the horserace early on, it means that when they bow out of the campaign or end up losing, part of the story will be about their fall from the summit. Just ask Howard Dean how much being the front runner in December 2003 did him when his campaign failed to do the job in Iowa. Ben Carson led the huge Republican pack at one point last year, and a fat lot of good that did him.

Polls are not votes. In the end, polls can inform about whats going on now, but they do not determine any outcome. A properly done poll can provide a lot of useful data for campaigns to use, but thats about strategy, not outcomes. Doing well in the polls can lead to increases in fundraising, but Jeb has shown how little can be accomplished with an ungodly amount of money. Campaigns conduct their own polls because knowing whats going on now is vital, not so the campaign can tell supporters Were winning! (which theyll do if their poll comes out well for their candidate) but so they know how to tweak the ads and the field and the speeches.

Votes count, not polls. No one has ever taken an oath of office in this country because they were first in a poll. For Sanders supporters, using current polling to urge others to support their guy is legitimate politics, but only within the scope of Weve got a great chance to win. Taking a horserace poll that shows Sanders doing better against Trump than Clinton is nonsensical. None of those three is a nominee at this point, and the number of possibilities for what could change between todays poll and the reality of, say, September 1st, is huge. The polls are snapshots, not inevitabilities.

Take a deep breath. Every candidate has good and bad polls. Along with the polls showing Sanders doing great are undoubtedly others that are less rosy; perhaps, among the many questions a good poll will have, there will be hints of trouble ahead. Candidates may make noise about the polls in Trumps case, half of his campaign is him making noise about the polls but the good candidates glance at the numbers, ponder for a bit, and then move forward. They and their staff will use the numbers to adjust things, but whatever the polls say, the candidate has a job to do.

And so do voters. Listen and learn is the #1 job of any responsible voter; go crazy about a poll is a job no one should take on. Polls wont win an election; grassroots campaigns win an election. Candidates speaking to as many people as possible. Volunteers going door-to-door. Effective media. Get out the vote efforts. These are what win campaigns. Polls are a tool, but they are not to be trusted.

I like polls. They can be fun, and they can be maddening. The more Ive been involved in politics, the less Ive let myself be attached to them. I cant do a lot about a presidential campaign, so the solid info I know Ill find at FiveThirtyEight and other top-notch aggregators of polls is interesting but little more. I am trying to help elect a mayor in Portland, and any polling released publicly isnt going to mean squat to me. The campaigns field operations concern me more than anything: identifying our voters and then ensuring they turn in their ballot.

Heres the last thing to remember about polls: They are meant to make money. Why do so many media operations conduct polls? Because they want to be where people come to get informed about an election, and the more people who turn to a particular network or website, the more ads that organization can sell and the more money theyll make. NBC and Fox and the Wall Street Journal and all the rest arent polling to serve the public good. They are trying to be dominant news sources, because that means money.

If you really care about your candidate, let go of the polls. Donate what you can, and talk about the issues. Dont tell people your candidate sucks because mine does better in this poll. Thats not a winning argument; thats a fight. Your candidates great poll today might be a crappy one in two weeks. Will you quit because of the bad poll?

Your passion is what matters. Your beliefs. Your desire to elect your candidate. You know you wont be swayed by the polls, so why use them as a tool against others? Polls are info, and nothing more. And, taken individually, they often are not very good info.

Unless thats all youve got.

Source: http://www.blueoregon.com/2016/02/poll-positions/

The Latest: Safarova dodges rain for French Open win

Nadal vs. Federer 2005 French Open Semi-Final

AP 12:36 p.m. EDT May 22, 2016

(Photo: The Associated Press)

PARIS (AP) The Latest on the French Open (all times local):

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6:30 p.m.

Lucie Safarova of the Czech Republic has closed out a comfortable 6-0, 6-2 win against Vitalia Diatchenko, getting back to the warmth of the locker room just as rain picked up again at the French Open and forced the cancellation of all remaining matches Sunday.

The runner-up to Serena Williams last year at Roland Garros made light work of the Russian ranked 210 spots below her.

Safarova didn"t let a mid-match rain delay of nearly three hours throw off her rhythm. The 11th seed closed out the first-round match as umpires on other courts were pulling players off court again for more rain.

Organizers announced that because players were sliding on the tramlines, it was too risky for them to continue and that play wouldn"t resume before Monday morning.

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5:50 p.m.

Heavy showers have stopped and play has resumed under still overcast skies at the French Open.

The rain delay of nearly three hours has forced the postponement of matches that were scheduled for later Sunday, the tournament"s opening day.

But fifth-seeded Kei Nishikori of Japan is back on Court Philippe Chatrier, resuming his match against Simone Bolelli of Italy, with a 6-1, 5-4 lead.

Other matches that were interrupted mid-flow are also resuming. But all other matches on Sunday"s schedule that had yet to start are postponed.

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3:50 p.m.

With an eye on the Rio de Janeiro Olympics, Serena and Venus Williams are entered in women"s doubles at the French Open their first Grand Slam tournament as a team since 2014.

In the doubles draw for Roland Garros, announced Sunday, the sisters will open against Jelena Ostapenko and Yulia Putintseva.

The Williams-Williams pairing has not appeared in a bracket at a major since the U.S. Open two years ago. They hadn"t played together anywhere since then until this month at the Italian Open, where they lost their first match.

The American siblings already have won three gold medals in doubles, at the 2000, 2008 and 2012 Summer Games. They also own 13 Grand Slam titles as a pair, most recently at Wimbledon in 2012.

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3:10 p.m.

Play is being delayed on all courts at the French Open because of rain.

Among the matches in progress, fifth-seeded Kei Nishikori of Japan leads Simone Bolelli of Italy 6-1, 5-4 on Court Philippe Chatrier, and No. 23 Jack Sock of the United States leads Robin Haase of the Netherlands 6-3, 7-5, 3-6, 2-1.

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1:55 p.m.

Nick Kyrgios was warned by a French Open chair umpire for shouting at a ballkid to retrieve a towel, leading to a prolonged and angry monologue by the 21-year-old Australian.

Otherwise, the 17th-seeded Kyrgios did just fine in his first-round match Sunday.

Kyrgios wound up with a 7-6, (6), 7-6 (6), 6-4 victory over Marco Cecchinato, a 23-year-old Italian ranked 124th who has lost all four Grand Slam matches in his career.

In the first-set tiebreaker, umpire Carlos Ramos gave Kyrgios a code violation warning over the way the player called for a towel between points. That prompted a string of curse-filled arguments from Kyrgios.

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1:40 p.m

Petra Kvitova is through to the second round of the French Open after battling more than 2 hours on Court Philippe Chatrier.

Danka Kovinic came close to creating the first upset of this year"s tournament but failed to build on her momentum when she served for the match in the deciding set.

She broke for a 5-4 lead after Kvitova hit three double faults but the two-time Wimbledon champion won the next three games to seal the match. The 10th-seeded Kvitova won 6-2, 4-6, 7-5.

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12:50 a.m.

Two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova is having trouble on Court Philippe Chatrier.

The 10th-seeded Czech looked in control after breaking Danka Kovinic twice to win the first set 6-2 but dropped the second 6-4.

Kovinic has never gone beyond the second round at any Grand Slam tournament while Kvitova"s best result at the French Open is a semifinalist spot back in 2012.

Earlier, 24th-seeded Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova became the first player to advance to the second round with a 6-2, 6-0 win over Sara Sorribes Tormo.

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11:35 a.m.

Despite rain much of the morning, the French Open has started.

The forecast calls for showers on Sunday, but a break in the weather allowed two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova onto Court Philippe Chatrier to face 59th-ranked Danka Kovinic of Montenegro in a first-round match.

Other players scheduled to play on Day 1 of the clay-court tournament include 2014 U.S. Open runner-up Kei Nishikori, eighth-seeded Milos Raonic, and 2015 Wimbledon finalist Garbine Muguruza.

The French Open is the only Grand Slam tournament that begins on a Sunday.

About six months after the deadly attacks in Paris, heightened security at Roland Garros was noticeable, including extra bag checks and patdowns that led to longer-than-usual waits at the entrance gates.

Source: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/tennis/2016/05/22/the-latest-rain-greets-french-open-start/84739436/

Look Up Tonight: Blue Moon | Tomorrow: Mars Opposition Dazzles

Elvis Presley - Blue Moon

Slip in a couple of naps this weekend if you can because you may want to stay up late the next couple of nights to howl at the Blue Moon and gaze at Mars as it gets closer to Earth than it has been for more than a decade.

The celestial double feature starts Saturday with the Blue Moon and ends with the Mars opposition on Sunday.

Skies over the Chicago area are clear tonight and it"s an ideal time to be outside, with lows ranging from the lower 50s in the suburbs to the mid to upper 50s in the city. Sunday night will be similar.

Blue Moon with a Difference

Mays full Moon also known as the Full Flower Moon, the Full Corn Planting Moon and the Milk Moon is not really blue, of course.

And its not a Blue Moon as people typically understand the celestial occurrence. A Blue Moon usually refers to the second of two full Moons in a single month, but this one gets its name in a different way.

Normally, there are only three full Moons in each season, but occasionally there is a season with four full Moons, Accuweather.com said. When this happens, like how it is this spring, the third of the four full Moons earns the name of a Blue Moon.

Red Planet Steals the Show

Its true that Mercury has greater swings in brilliance than any of the other planets in the solar system and Jupiter is currently the brightest starlike object in the evening sky, but Mars steals the show on Sunday when it and the Sun are on opposite sides of the Earth. That"s what"s called the Mars opposition.

It will have quadrupled in brilliance since the beginning of April, and at its brightest, Mars shines 80 times more brilliantly than at its dimmest.

The Mars opposition occurs about once every two years.

From our perspective on our spinning world, Mars rises in the east just as the sun sets in the west, NASA explained on its website. Then, after staying up in the sky the entire night, Mars sets in the west just as the sun rises in the east. Since Mars and the sun appear on opposite sides of the sky, we say that Mars is in opposition.

If Earth and Mars followed perfectly circular orbits, opposition would be as close as the two planets could get. Of course, nothing about motion in space is quite that simple! Our orbits are actually elliptical (oval-shaped), and we travel a little closer to the sun at one end of our orbits than at the other end.

Mars has been shining brightly all month and will appear brighter than any star or planet in the sky the next couple of months.

Look Ahead to Meteor Showers

Youll have to wait a couple of months to see meteor showers.

The Delta Aquarids peak in late July, with up to 20 meteors per hour. Theres no definite peak time for the Delta Aquarids, and the medium-speed meteors go on fairly steadily through late July and early August.

If you can catch only one meteor shower in 2016 make it the Perseids, which peak Aug. 11-12. They often produce 50 to 100 fast, bright meteors per hour during the peak and are known for persistent trails.

by Beth Dalbey for Patch.com

Image credit: Close-up view of Mars by Hubble Space Telescope via NASA

Source: http://patch.com/illinois/chicago/look-tonight-blue-moon-tomorrow-mars-opposition-dazzles-0