FedEx: 'Show-Me Story is Showing Up'

By Ben Levisohn

BofA Merrill Lynch added FedEx (FDX) to its US 1 list today, but it wasnt the only investment bank with kind words for the express shipper today. Citigroups Christian Wetherbee and team note that FedExs show-me story is showing up. They explain:

We routinely hear that FedEx is confusing because the stock has done well (+57% in 2013 and +24% YTD), but there is no evidence that the Express restructuring is working and earnings growth is all driven by the buybackwe believe that as FedEx delivers (pun intended) on its targets, there is the potential for meaningful upside from current levels as investors rotate into the stock (potentially from Rails or other Industrials), which trades at an attractive 17x NTM EPS

Based on our analysis of the individual components of FedExs Express Profit Improvement Plan, we believe the segment has realized a solid $300m of net improvement to profitability from its efforts. F2015 seems particularly exciting in that incremental initiatives are coming on line (aircraft replacement & domestic network reorg) which should help drive greater benefits and should be augmented by lower fuel prices.

Beyond the companys progress toward its Express profit improvement plan, we believe both FedEx and UPS (UPS) are on the verge of generating real pricing power. This trend should be the incremental catalyst to earnings and the stock post-holiday in C2015. Assuming both FedEx and UPS remain rational, we believe pricing could inflect to +3-4% from its recent +2-3% range driving greater earnings power and an improved valuation

FedEx is also the biggest beneficiary of lower fuel prices in our coverage, thus we reiterate our Buy and FedEx remains on the Citi Focus List.

Weatherbee raised his target on FedEx to $210 from $190.

Shares of FedEx have gained 1.5% to $180.33 at 12:13 p.m. today, while UPS has.risen 0.5% to $110.37.

Source: http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2014/12/02/fedex-show-me-story-is-showing-up/?mod%3DBOLBlog