Oscars 2016: Who will win Best Supporting Actress?

Oscars 2016 nominations announced

What a funny old mess theyve made of Best Supporting Actress this year. We have to start with the bare fact that Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander have easily lead-strength roles in both of their films. Craftily, in this bumper year for lead actresses, these two were downgraded to supporting during the promotional campaigns to maximise their chances of being nominated; indeed, either could win.

The nominees:

Theres no doubt that its been Vikanders year. With her work in Ex Machina on top of this, she could very easily have been nominated twice, had the chips fallen differently and her best performance to date, as Vera Brittain in James Kents WWI weepie Testament of Youth, has scarcely been recognised anywhere. Mara, meanwhile, is pitch-perfect in Carol, and will only have to surmount what feels like a two-cheers attitude to her film from awards bodies generally, not to mention a character, unlike Vikanders, who holds a lot of her emotions coolly in check.

Jennifer Jason Leigh (at 54) and Rachel McAdams (at 37) join the nominations club the latter for a shrewd, unflashy turn riding the coattails of her widely liked film, and the former because it just seemed like a great chance to get her in at long last. If The Hateful Eight were more popular generally, and perhaps the part of Daisy Domergue a little less of a panto punchbag, Leigh might have strolled off with this in her pocket.

As it stands, the only truly supporting performance that looks like a tempting bet is Kate Winslets excellent marketing guru in Steve Jobs: her most original and charming creation in years, for all that the accent comes and goes. A little unexpectedly, shes bagged a Golden Globe and a Bafta already. Can she score the hat-trick, or will that wily campaign strategy pay off handsomely for one of the new kids on the block?

Will win: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl), even though shes not a supporting actress in it

Should win: Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs), but only because category champ Rooney Mara isnt a supporting actress in Carol

Might win: Winslet

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/film/what-to-watch/oscars-2016-best-supporting-actress-analysis/