Monday, August 29, 2016

Juggernaut Index, No. 12: The Houston Texans


Every Brock Osweiler Throw from Week 2 | 2016 NFL Preseason Highlights
Houston is the rare division champ that neededto make massive changes. Fantasy-wise, things are looking up. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

The Juggernaut Index is our annual ranking and review of NFL teams for fantasy purposes repeat: FANTASY PURPOSES. Here we concern ourselves with a franchises likely contributions to the fantasy player pool. We are not concerned with projected wins and losses. Instead, were focused on yards and points. As always, were beginning with the leagues least useful teams, working our way toward the elite fantasy juggernauts.

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As a general rule, year-to-year continuity is a big deal in the NFL. Its not reasonable to expect a team to execute flawlessly in September if it underwent a massive overhaul in March. Without overstating pro footballs complexity, hopefully we can all agree that repetition, rapport and scheme familiarity are not small things. Building a great real-life team is somewhat more complicated than assembling a great fantasy roster.

Which brings us to the 2016 Houston Texans. This teams first-string offense in opening week will feature a new quarterback, new running back, two new offensive linemen and at least one new receiver. Thats a whole lotta new. Its possible that Bill OBriens squad will be an unstoppable machine from the seasons first snap, but we shouldnt panic if it isnt.

If theres one thing we can say with certainty about the Texans offense, its that change was needed. Last year, Houston led the NFL in pace while ranking at the bottom of the league in yards per play (4.9). It was a hurry-up-and-punt system, basically. (Shane Lechler would have been a monster in PPP leagues, if such a format existed. He punted 95 times, the second-highest total in the league.) The Texans completed only 57.8 percent of their pass attempts in 2015, and the teams running game averaged just 3.7 yards per carry. Horrendous rates, obviously.

This year, Brock Osweiler takes over at quarterback after signing a mega-deal with Houston in free agency (four years, $72 million). He appeared in eight games for the Broncos last season, his play was uneven, and he posted a passer-rating of 86.4. Its not at all clear that Osweiler is the sort of QB who can guide a team deep into the postseason. But hey, hes also not Brian Hoyer, so thats exciting. Osweiler has uncommon size (6-foot-7) and plenty of arm strength, but his accuracy isnt special and his processing speed may not be the greatest. Still, he directed a few big wins for Denver last year notably against New England and Cincinnati and h**l have plenty of firepower at his disposal in Houston. It wouldnt be a shock if he emerged as a stream-worthy QB for fantasy purposes, but he doesnt belong in the draft discussion for leagues of typical size. Ive snagged Osweiler as a late flier in super-flex formats simply because he gets to throw to this guy

DeAndre Hopkins cannot be covered. Nope. (Photo by Ronald C. Modra/Sports Imagery/Getty Images)

DeAndre Hopkins has seen a parade of poor quarterbacks since entering the league Schaub, Keenum, Yates, Mallet, Weeden, Hoyer so I refuse to believe he cant thrive with Osweiler. Hes coming off a season in which he caught 111 b***s for 1521 yards and 11 scores, drawing a ridiculous 192 targets. Nuk gave us 11 games with at least 80 receiving yards last year, and only once was he held to fewer than five catches. He has freakish hands and perhaps the best body control in the league. Hes fantastic, is what Im saying a no-doubt No. 1 receiver. Draft him in the first round with confidence.

Beyond Hopkins, however, Houstons receiving corps is loaded with question marks. First-round rookie Will Fuller is a burner with 4.32 speed, and it appears h**l start opposite Hopkins. Theres no questioning his vertical ability, but his hands are a legit concern. Fullers collegiate career was filled with big plays and ugly drops, and its worth noting that he was owned (and later trashed) by Clemson corner Mackensie Alexander. Its not as if Fuller is going to run every route in the playbook, but h**l serve as an immediate home-run threat. Id prefer to own him in a best-ball format than in a league with standard settings, but its clear he deserves attention in deeper player pools.

Braxton Miller, another rookie, appears to be ticketed for slot duties. Hes caught seven b***s for 68 yards in exhibition play thus far, running with the starters. Miller only spent one season at receiver at Ohio State, but hes apparently a quick study. Like Fuller, he should have a place on your cheat sheet in deep-ish leagues. Millers preseason highlights are high quality, and you might recall that he specialized in the spin-move-of-death at OSU.

At the moment, Jaelen Strong and Cecil Shorts are simply names on the depth chart, players with little chance to be featured. No need to draft either receiver. The Texans havent given us a useful fantasy tight end since the prime years of Owen Daniels, but the team may have found something in UDFA Stephen Anderson. At 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds, hes either an undersized TE or a slightly over-sized WR. Either way, they seem to like him in Houston. Theres no pressing need to draft him, of course, but file away the name.

The Texans ranked fifth in the NFL in total rush attempts last season (472) and No. 29 in yards per carry (3.7), which is well, thats misery. As a fan, theres almost nothing worse than a bad running team with a deep commitment to the run. But new acquisition Lamar Miller is taking over the featured role in Houstons backfield, chasing Alfred Blue to the sideline. Miller is simply an enormous upgrade for this team. He managed to finish as a top-10 fantasy back in each of the past two seasons, despite receiving a curiously modest workload (only 241 touches in 2015). All signs point to Miller feasting in the year ahead; his touches should increase by 70 or more, assuming good health. Its easy to see a path to a top-three positional finish for Miller, and he shouldnt fall outside the top 15 picks in a typical draft.

I havent yet reached a Brad Evans level of enthusiasm with Miller check the ranks for details but I do understand the infatuation. Brads stance on Miller does not crack the list of his 100 most insane fantasy opinions.

Houstons defense is led by one of the NFLs most relentless corporate pitchmen pass-rushers, J.J. Watt, a hurricane of a human being. Watt is recovering from surgery to repair a herniated disk, placing his September availability in doubt. He played through hand, groin, disk and abdominal injuries last season and still managed to produce 17.5 sacks and 76 tackles, so Im not going to give a pessimistic spin on his outlook for 2016. Hes not a normal dude. The Texans D has talent at all levels and the teams division schedule is loaded with turnovers, so this is a group to target in our game. They open against Jay Cutler & Co., so well rank em as a recommended play in Week 1, regardless of Watts status.

2015 Offensive Stats & RanksPoints per game 21.2 (22)Pass YPG 239.6 (18)Rush YPG 108.2 (15)Yards per play 4.9 (32)Plays per game 69.9 (1)

Previous Juggernaut Index entries: 32) Cleveland, 31) San Francisco, 30) Philadelphia, 29) Baltimore, 28) Tennessee, 27) Los Angeles, 26) Miami, 25) Detroit, 24) Chicago, 23) San Diego, 22) Minnesota, 21) Tampa Bay, 20) Atlanta, 19) Washington, 18) Buffalo, 17) Kansas City, 16) Oakland, 15) NY Giants, 14) Indianapolis, 13) Jacksonville, 12) Houston

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/juggernaut-index-no-12-the-houston-texans-222539713.html

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