Showing posts with label Hubris. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hubris. Show all posts

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Japan"s demand for "seamless Brexit" is a timely warning against hubris


Bill Maher - American Hubris Rant

It wants continuation of the single passport system for financial services, and clearing of euro transactions in London. If Japanese financial institutions are unable to maintain the single passport obtained in the UK they might have to relocate their operations from the UK to existing establishments in the EU, it said.

The task force insists on mutual recognition of Authorized Economic Operators, which could not occur if Britain fell back to the minimalist terms of the World Trade Organisation. If the UK fails to retain the European Medicines Agency, Japanese pharmaceutical companies might shift research and investment to mainland Europe.

It wants guaranteed access for EU and UK nationals to work in each others country, which is not the same thing as free movement of labour or benefit rights. While the paper stresses that Japan respects the will of the British people, it cleaves to the status quo. The message is essentially that nothing should really change, said Raoul Ruparel from Open Europe.

The wish-list could perhaps be achieved through a halfway house such as entry into the European Economic Area, the Norwegian model. It is totally incompatible with the hardline demands of the Brexit triumvirate.

The task force paper is probably music to the ears of 10 and 11 Downing Street, and its release during the G20 summit may have been co-ordinated. It strengthens Theresa Mays hand as she tries to steer through treacherous waters, and pushes within the cabinet for a compromise soft Brexit - or a seamless Brexit as Tokyo calls it.

Japans demarche should not be read as a threat to Britain. The document is equally addressed to the EU, making it clear that the EUs own credibility is on the line and that any attempt to punish Britain would be intolerable.

It urges the EU to recognize that Britain cannot on its own deliver these terms, and thatEU officials must heed the voices of Japanese businesses to the fullest extent and to do their utmost to cooperate in taking the necessary measures to advance the Brexit negotiations, it said.

The thrust is clear. A vasteconomic structure has been built over the decades on the assumption of unrestricted trade and financial transactions between Britain and Europe, and drastic changes would be morally unjustifiable. Since it is the EU that is threatening to put up commercial barriers not Britain much of paper is directed squarely at Brussels, Berlin, and Paris.

A new post-referendum order is emerging in the world. The US has subtly pivoted. It is no longer warning of Armageddon for Britain, switching instead on how best to ensure that the UKs withdrawal from the EU is the least destructive possible.

Were going to do everything we can to make sure that the consequences of the decision dont end up unraveling what is already a very strong and robust economic relationship, said President Barack Obama at the G20. Washingtons enormous power will increasingly be brought to bear ontheEuropejust as much as it is being brought to bearonBritain, an equivalence that was lacking during the Brexit campaign.

The late summer rebound in the UK is a welcome reprieve but it means little. The health of the British economy will be determined by investment decisions stretching out over ten to fifteen years, and many of these will be take by powerful interests in Asia and the US. Japans polite but unprecedented intervention is a diplomatic cannon shot.

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/05/japans-demand-for-seamless-brexit-is-a-timely-warning-against-hu/

Continue Reading ..

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

How shipping hubris and the Korean government broke Hanjin shipping


Hubris - SoulCalibur II Music Extended

All is not well in the intricate global system that brings the world its goods after Hanjin shipping declared bankruptcy this week.

The South Korean firm operated 90 ships, making it the worlds seventh-largest fleet, accounting for less than 4% of global shipping. But its demisethe biggest-ever shipping bankruptcyhas disrupted trade to the point where US retailers are starting to fret about stocking goods ahead of the busy holiday season and shipping competitors are hiking prices by as much as 50%.

The companys demise is largely due to overcapacity; wild growth in the number and capacity of container ships has outstripped the amount of goods to be carried as global trade has slowed. The industry as a whole will lose as much as $10 billion this year.

Falling prices have left comparative minnows, like Hanjin,without the cash flow to continue operatingthe company owed almost nine times its market value in debt. Bigger companies have been locked in an arms race to build the largest-possible ships, even as they seek mergers and competitive alliances that stay just one step ahead of international anti-trust cops.

There is a twist in Hanjins story, however. It tumbled into bankruptcy after one primary creditor, the Korean Development Bank, refused to restructure its loans. KDB is also the major financier behind Hyundai Merchant Marine, another South Korean shipper and the main rival to Hanjin. In the eyes of industry observers, like Flexport CEO Ryan Peterson, KDBs refusal to negotiate with Hanjin was a choice to effectively consolidate the countrys shipping into one firm:

After some messiness with customers not getting cargo delivered on time over the coming weeks, the Korean government gets a rather acceptable outcome: Instead of supporting two ailing carriers with constant bailouts as they compete all the profits out of Korean trade lanes, they get a single national champion that they can support as it competes on a global basis with best of breed carriers around the world.

That will prove cold comfort to those dealing with the fallout from the bankruptcy. Many ports refused to allow Hanjin ships to offload their cargo or obtain supplies. Port officials feared the ships would be unable to pay for tugs, offloading, food or water, or that creditors would attempt to seize ships and cargo. Hanjin has been scrambling to raise money to get its ships offloaded and keep its sailors from starving at sea.

As well as sailors, cargo has been stranded offshore, delaying deliveries and creating a mess with for the various firms who handle shipping for major retailers. Some buyers awaiting perishable goods have had to pony up special fees to the ports so they can obtain them before they rot at sea.

Then there are shippers who were counting on Hanjin to carry goods to the US over the coming weeks, ahead of the busy holiday shopping season beginning in November. Opportunistic carriers are raising rates, according to US businesses like UPS, and retailers may see higher transit costs eat into margins at a profitable time.

The price hikes are expected to fade, since analysts expect Hanjins ships to be picked up at auction and put back to work plying the trade routes. Thats a bit of a mixed blessing for the industry, even if customers will be happy to see low prices return, because the problem of overcapacity isnt about to go away.

There will very likely be more Hanjins, warns shipping analyst Olaf Merk.

Source: http://qz.com/778219/how-shipping-hubris-and-the-korean-government-broke-hanjin-shipping-stranded-its-sailors-and-mucked-up-holiday-retail/

Continue Reading ..