This afternoon some rival trades had their machetes out, incorrectly calling LionsgatesInsurgents weekend off 20% from Divergents $54.6M opening. Distrib estimates even saw Insurgentwith a first Friday as low as $17M, 25% off from Divergents $22.78M first day. What a difference a night makes.
As we forecasted, the under 25ers on spring break who repped 47% of the crowd showed up toInsurgentlater in the day than sooner. As such, the sequelsfirst Friday isnt looking so bad with an estimated $21M at 3,875 theaters, which is just 8% off fromDivergents. The sequels estimated weekend is now looking like $49.6M per industry estimates. Yes, thats belowDivergents first weekend by 9% and its below the $57M projection per early tracking, but theres no need to throw a pity party. Working greatly in Insurgents favor is its A- CinemaScore tonight, not far fromDivergents A. On average, A- pics typically final with a cume that is 3.5x a titles opening.Divergents final domestic of $150.9Mwas 2.76x its bow. Hence, the anticipation is thatInsurgentwill leg out and emulate Divergents trajectory. The audience isnt bound to shrink in the long run for the feature adaptation of Veronica Roths second novel (it just didnt expand this weekend). From the onset, we knew thatTheDivergent SerieswasntThe Hunger Games in terms of its mass following.
Speaking to Deadline,one non-Lionsgate distrib source observed how similar the exit polls were betweenInsurgenttoDivergent. Abitmore females turned up this time to Insurgentat 60% versusDivergents 59%.More folks under the age of 34 gave it an A or an A-, while the middle-aged and senior citizens gave it a B+. While folks came out for stars Shailene Woodley and Theo James last time, they showed a stronger interest in the duo this time around. However, industry exit polls showed that the subject matter was the prevailing reason why crowds shelled out for Insurgent.
The reported production cost forDivergentwas just under $90M andInsurgentcarries a price tag that is a reported $110M-$120M.Divergentranked No. 17 in terms of profit in Deadlines Most Valuable Blockbuster Tournament with a studio net profit of $71.87M.
Similar to how Lionsgate banged the drum for itsHunger Gamesinstallments, the mini-major ran a thorough marketing campaign, fueling the fanbase at specific intervals over the last year. Eight 3D characters posters were dropped online for fans in October. TV spots began eight weeks out running during such events as the Super Bowl pre-game, the Oscars red carpet, the Grammys, NBA games, andThe Walking Deadpremiere. While most of the headliners dont have personal social media profiles, Lionsgate trotted the cast out with Facebook and Twitter chats, as well as a Google Hangout with Woodley and James. Per RelishMix,Facebook video views for the sequel have past 20M with a constant stream of fresh materials over the last 3 weeks.AnInsurgent Snapchatfilm campaign included a first-ever exclusive trailer debut on the social media platform as well as apartnership with top social TV property Pretty Little Liarswhich included an exclusive clip reveal to their massive following. ThePLL Snapcap sponsorship, Snapchat influencer campaign with 15 pieces of original content was shared to a total of 5M Snapchat daily views.
In her second frame,Cinderella is looking at a Friday of $9.69M. The Walt Disney film will cross the $100M mark on Saturday and by Sunday its 3-day cume should stand at $35.78M, off 47% with a 10-day stateside cume of $123.8M. Social Media monitor RelishMix reports thatCinderellasocial activity is outstrippingInsurgent by 60% a day. Recentdaily views for Insurgent are mostly below 25k per video while Cindy hasover 100k views per day.Insurgent rankssecond this month in total YouTube views with 77.7M behind Cindys 100.5M.
The Gunmanwith Sean Pennwhat happened here? Pic is looking to arrive below its FSS estimate of $8M with $5.45M. Theres no skin off Open Roads nose as theyre merely the distributor here with Canal Plus footing the production bill (except domestic P&A). Gunmanwith its storyabout a secret agent sniper who is forced to go on the lam is Sean Penn doing Liam Neeson; and thats not a role that moviegoers typically equate with the two-time Oscar-winning actor. Furthmore, theyve had their fair share of Neeson of late with Warner Bros. A- CinemaScore ratedRun All Nightset to decline 58% this weekend with $4.65M and a 10-day cume of $19.4M. One distribution insider thought the R-rated film should have been sold for its action versus Penn (who takes center stage in the one sheets). If thats not enough, Gunmanis fighting against the surplus of R-rated action films at the multiplex.Auds trippedGunmanwith a B- CinemaScore, and critics werent nicer shooting out the pics knee caps with a 13% Rotten Tomatoes score. Its unfortunate that this film isnt clicking as Penn wears the genre well. Not only are the action scenes wild, but Penn is in tip-top beefcake shape, much like Sylvester Stallone was forRambo: First Blood Part II. Whats likely turning audiences off is the films convoluted set-up against a Congo political backdrop. Once you get past the first half hour, Gunmanis a fun ride.
Pure Flixs Christian dramaDo You Believe?is also flying below its initial $5.5M projections with a FSS of $3.7M. Im told much like the production labels previous indie success Gods Not Dead($9.2M opening, $60.8M total cume),there was a grass roots social media push for DYB.While the filmtook over the oldGods Not Dead URL, its social media has been muted compared to the Harold Cronk-helmed title. DYBstarMira Sorvino has been tweeting her support of the film to her 16,900 Twitter followers. Sean Astin, who counts 139K Twitter followers,has reserved his social media promotion for his Boston Marathon charity run. DYBsTwitter account has 942 followers versusGods Not Deads solid 31K. Pure Flix held about 200 DYBpreview screenings in advance, comprised of 80 influencer previews and 120 pastor screenings.
Elsewhere, RADiUSIt Followscontinues to be a horror arthouse wonder with a projected $90K Friday and 286K weekend thats a 75% hike over the same frame a week ago. By Sunday, Weinstein Co.s Oscar winnerThe Imitation Gameis expected to cross $90M.
Below are the top 10 films per industry estimates for the weekend of March 20-22:
1).Insurgent(LG), 3,875 theaters /$21M*Fri. / 3-Day: $49.6M / Wk 1
2).Cinderella(DIS), 3,848 theaters (+3)/$9.69MFri. (-58%) / 3-Day: $35.78M (-47%)/Total Cume: $123.8M/Wk 2
3).The Gunman(OR), 2,816 theaters /$1.8M*Fri./ 3-Day: $5.45M /Wk 1
4).Kingsman: The Secret Service(FOX), 2,233 theaters (-402)/$1.28MFri. (-23%)/ 3-Day: $4.68M (-25%)/ Total Cume: $114.6M/ Wk 6
5).Run All Night(WB), 3,171 theaters /$1.38MFri. (-64%)/ 3-Day: $4.65M (-58%)/Total Cume: $19.4M/Wk 2
6).Do You Believe? (PF), 1,320 theaters /$1.15MFri. / 3-Day: $3.7M / Wk 1
7).The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel(FSL), 2,016 theaters (-6)/$936KFri. (-43%)/ 3-Day: $3.28M (-42%)/Total Cume: $24M/Wk 3
8).Focus(WB), 2,055 theaters (-800)/$900KFri. (-47%)/ 3-Day: $3.1M (-46%)/Total Cume: $49.1M /Wk 4
9).TheSpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water(PAR), 1,980 theaters (-679) /$612KFri. (-35%)/ 3-Day: $2.69M (-33%)/Total Cume: $159.1M/ Wk 7
10).Chappie(Sony), 2,429 theaters (-772)/$685KFri. (-56%)/ 3-Day: $2.54M (-55%)/ Total Cume: $28.1M /Wk 3
Notables:
American Sniper(WB), 1,456 theaters (-545) /$423KFri. (-44%)/ 3-Day: $1.6M (-43%) /Total Cume: $344M /Wk 13
Fifty Shades Of Grey(UNI/Focus), 1,168 theaters (-871)/$384KFri. (-59%) / 3-Day: $1.19M (-59%)/Total Cume: $163.7M/ Wk 6
The Imitation Game(TWC), 337 theaters (-188)/$87KFri. (-52%) /3-Day: $317K (-52%)/Total Cume: $90.9M/Wk 17
It Follows(RAD), 32 theaters (+28)/$90KFri. (+75%) /3-Day PSA: $8,944/3-Day: $286K (+75%)/Total cume: $510K/Wk 2
Limited releases:
Danny Collins(BST), 5 theaters /$17KFri. /3-Day PSA: $11K/3-Day: $55K / Wk 1
Source: http://deadline.com/2015/03/insurgent-weekend-box-office-divergent-shailene-woodley-the-gunman-1201396216/
