Box Office Preview: "Sully" and "When the Bough Breaks" Will Lead the Fall Season

When The Bough Breaks TRAILER # 2 (Sexy Thriller - 2016)

With this Fridays release of Clint Eastwoods Sully an awards contender, starring Tom Hanks as the pilot who made an emergency landing in the Hudson River the remainder of 2016 box office will proceed at a breakneck pace. However, it may be tough to match this weekend against last year whenThe Perfect Guy and The Visit each crossed $25 million.

Sully looks to lead the weekend with over $20 million; it could be considerably higher. TheTelluride premiere led to positive critical reaction, and its heroic story along with Eastwoodsbox-office draw after the mammoth American Sniper ($350 million domestic) should give it heft.

In the 12 years since his last Oscar Best Picture winner, Million Dollar Baby, Eastwood madenine films. Two of them American Sniper and Gran Torino domestically grossed a half billion dollars combined. His otherseven movies made less than$250 million total, mostly in therange of$30 million-$50 million each. Warner Bros., his partner for all but three of his films as director, stuck with him because he keepsbudgets low (mostly $40 million or lower, though the last two increased to $60 million.)

Of course, Flight in 2012 similarly featured a major director/star combo (Robert Zemeckis and Denzel Washington) in a story involving a plane crash and its subsequent investigation. Ift opened to $25 million, with a $97 million ultimate domestic haul.

Sully

Unusual for an Eastwood film, which arealways technically top-notch but traditionally crafted, is the emphasis on IMAX camerawork and presentation. With the premium cost for these shows, it remains to be seen how important this is for ticket buyers.

Its an important film for Tom Hanks. His last seven films have been a mixed bag, with Captain Phillips a success (and the only $100 million+ domestic grosser), Bridge of Spies and Saving Mr. Banks breakeven or a bit more, and four others grossing under $40 million. Things bottomed out with A Hologram for the King, which didnt even break $5 million earlier this year.

When the Bough Breaks (Sony) is expected to place second. Its the same formula as last years The Perfect Guy: a thriller starring Morris Chestnut, set in the upper middle class African-American milieu.Regina Hall also stars in this story about a childless couple and their troubles when they bring a surrogate mother into their lives. At a thrifty $10 million budget, this could be another sleeper success for Sonys Screen Gems unit, while their Dont Breathe heads toward $100 million.

Expected to open under $10 million are The Wild Life (Lionsgate) and The Disappointments Room (Focus). Wild is the first of at least five wide-release animated films for the rest of the year. Another talking animals cartoon feature, this one riffs on the Robinson Crusoe story by providing the castaway with companions. Its a Belgian/French production, and not expected to remotely perform at the same level as top studio or high-end independent productions (such as Laika with their current Kubo and the Two Strings).

A release forThe Disappointments Room isa victory in itself. The first Relativity production to be distributed post-bankruptcy, itstarsKate Beckinsale and is directed by D.J. Caruso, whose biggest successes have come from thrillers and horror films (Eagle Eye). This, like When the Bough Breaks, is the story of ayoung family in peril at home; with that competition, and with Dont Breathe still strong,it has limited hopes for much of a gross.

Among several positively reviewed new specialized releases, the standout isAuthor The J.T. Leroy Story. Adocumentary about the search for the true identity of a literary sensation, it premiered atSundance. Amazon Films distributes through a partnership with Magnolia Pictures. Initial dates are at four top New York and Los Angeles theaters.

Source: http://www.indiewire.com/2016/09/box-office-preview-sully-when-the-bough-breaks-clint-eastwood-tom-hanks-1201724125/