Thursday, September 15, 2016

Japan"s demand for "seamless Brexit" is a timely warning against hubris


Bill Maher - American Hubris Rant

It wants continuation of the single passport system for financial services, and clearing of euro transactions in London. If Japanese financial institutions are unable to maintain the single passport obtained in the UK they might have to relocate their operations from the UK to existing establishments in the EU, it said.

The task force insists on mutual recognition of Authorized Economic Operators, which could not occur if Britain fell back to the minimalist terms of the World Trade Organisation. If the UK fails to retain the European Medicines Agency, Japanese pharmaceutical companies might shift research and investment to mainland Europe.

It wants guaranteed access for EU and UK nationals to work in each others country, which is not the same thing as free movement of labour or benefit rights. While the paper stresses that Japan respects the will of the British people, it cleaves to the status quo. The message is essentially that nothing should really change, said Raoul Ruparel from Open Europe.

The wish-list could perhaps be achieved through a halfway house such as entry into the European Economic Area, the Norwegian model. It is totally incompatible with the hardline demands of the Brexit triumvirate.

The task force paper is probably music to the ears of 10 and 11 Downing Street, and its release during the G20 summit may have been co-ordinated. It strengthens Theresa Mays hand as she tries to steer through treacherous waters, and pushes within the cabinet for a compromise soft Brexit - or a seamless Brexit as Tokyo calls it.

Japans demarche should not be read as a threat to Britain. The document is equally addressed to the EU, making it clear that the EUs own credibility is on the line and that any attempt to punish Britain would be intolerable.

It urges the EU to recognize that Britain cannot on its own deliver these terms, and thatEU officials must heed the voices of Japanese businesses to the fullest extent and to do their utmost to cooperate in taking the necessary measures to advance the Brexit negotiations, it said.

The thrust is clear. A vasteconomic structure has been built over the decades on the assumption of unrestricted trade and financial transactions between Britain and Europe, and drastic changes would be morally unjustifiable. Since it is the EU that is threatening to put up commercial barriers not Britain much of paper is directed squarely at Brussels, Berlin, and Paris.

A new post-referendum order is emerging in the world. The US has subtly pivoted. It is no longer warning of Armageddon for Britain, switching instead on how best to ensure that the UKs withdrawal from the EU is the least destructive possible.

Were going to do everything we can to make sure that the consequences of the decision dont end up unraveling what is already a very strong and robust economic relationship, said President Barack Obama at the G20. Washingtons enormous power will increasingly be brought to bear ontheEuropejust as much as it is being brought to bearonBritain, an equivalence that was lacking during the Brexit campaign.

The late summer rebound in the UK is a welcome reprieve but it means little. The health of the British economy will be determined by investment decisions stretching out over ten to fifteen years, and many of these will be take by powerful interests in Asia and the US. Japans polite but unprecedented intervention is a diplomatic cannon shot.

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/05/japans-demand-for-seamless-brexit-is-a-timely-warning-against-hu/

No comments:

Post a Comment