Wednesday, November 16, 2016

This is Who We Are


Top Plays: Duke 98, Augustana 45 (Ex.)

There is a moment early in the 1986 classic Hoosiers, when Coach Norman Dale introduces his new team to the fans at Hickory High School.

Its just a six man team at this point well, more like five and a half with Ollie as the sixth man. Buddy Luper has quit the team, threatening to transfer to Terhune, and the gifted Jimmy Chitwood has decided not to play basketball.

As the team lines up across the court, the fans who jam the stands start chanting, We want Jimmy We want Jimmy! (Apparently, nobody is upset by Buddys absence).

Gene Hackman, as Coach Dale, grabs the microphone and quiets the crowd.

I would hope you would support who we are and not who we are not, he tells them, gesturing to the six players behind him. This is our team!

I cant help thinking about that scene as I watch Dukes No. 1 ranked basketball team prepare to take on Kansas tonight in New York City. The truth is, the team that will wear the Duke blue tonight in The Garden is not the team voted No. 1 in almost every preseason poll. Its not the team expected to cut down the nets in April. Its not the team Blue Devil fans have been dreaming of for the entire offseason.

This team lacks its own Jimmy Chitwood and Buddy Luper.

Duke enters the season missing three potential NBA lottery picks. forward Harry Giles, forward Jayson Tatum and center Marques Bolden. With those three gifted big men healthy and fully integrated into the rotation, Duke is a superteam and would be heavily favored against any college team in the country.

But that is not who we are at this moment.

The Duke team that opened the season with lopsided victories over Marist (a very weak opponent) and Grand Canyon (somewhat better, but still outclassed) is a very good basketball team probably about as good as last years team was at its best.

The Devils have three explosive wing scorers junior Grayson Allen, sophomore Luke Kennard and freshman Frank Jackson -- and two seniors who are GREAT complementary players Amile Jefferson and Matt Jones.

The post situation is not much better than last year. Jefferson is an accomplished player on the boards and defensively, while sophomore Chase Jeter has made major strides in his sophomore season, but remains a work in progress. Neither is much of an offensive threat.

Thats too bad because Kansas almost exactly mirrors Duke.

The Jayhawks played a majority of three-guard offense in their opening night loss to Indiana with slender 6-8 freshman Josh Jackson actually seeing considerable time at the four. Their nominal big men soph Carlton Bragg and senior Landen Lucas -- combined for 23 points and a mere 11 rebounds in the 45-minute overtime game. The Jayhawks were abused inside by Indianas 7-foot Thomas Bryant.

It would be nice to see what Giles or Bolden could do in the post, but stop thinking that they are not going to be there. Id like to think that Jefferson and Jeter could hold their own defensively and in the boards.

Then it comes down to a shootout between Dukes Big Three and the Kansas trio of Frank Mason (great against Indiana), Devonte Graham and Josh Jackson.

Its a game the Duke team we all dream of would be heavily favored.

But its a game the Duke team as it currently exists will have to play at a high level to win. Its much like last year when the Devils were on their game, they were good enough to win at UNC and beat such teams as Virginia and Louisville. On nights when it was not clicking, the 2016 Devils could lose at home to Notre Dame or on the road at Clemson.

Last years team was a Sweet 16 team.

Its much too early to categorize this team.

Remember, in Hoosiers, Luper rejoined the team and Jimmy Chitwood eventually decided it was time to play some basketball. They sparked Hickory to the state championship.

At some point, Giles, Tatum and Bolden will return to action and that will transform a very good Duke team as now exists into a great Duke team, a potential championship team.

I know that Krzyzewski has discouraged speculation as to the return dates for the three missing players, but I also know that the staff thinks it wont be that long. Try to be patient its still early. If we get to Christmas and one or two or (G*d forbid!) all three are still out, then we can start to worry.

Its understandable that Duke fans are concerned. Injuries have been the bane of Dukes program in recent years. At least two national championship favorites have been derailed by injuries:

-- 2011: Before Kyrie Irving got hurt in his eighth game, Duke was unquestionably the best team in college basketball. Coach K once said that he thought the 11 Devils could have been undefeated without that loss. Irving returned for the NCAA Tournament, but the team never regained its chemistry.

-- 2013: Before Ryan Kelly was hurt in January, Duke was once again the clearcut best team in college basketball a claim proven by an unbeaten record against the toughest schedule in the country. Kelly returned late, but despite a memorable comeback game against Miami, he never regained full speed. Plus, star guard Seth Curry was plagued all year with a stress fracture. Duke was eliminated by eventual champion Louisville a team the Devils beat in November in the Elite Eight.

Two other seasons, injuries spoiled what could have been Final Four, even (with luck) national title chances:

-- 2012: Duke was 26-5 and No. 6 in that nation when Ryan Kelly was hurt in practice before the ACC Tournament. Without that key cog, the Devils scratched out one win over Virginia Tech, but fell in close games to Florida State (the eventual ACC champ) and Lehigh to close the season. Probably not a title team without the injury, but one that could have won the ACC championship and should have gone deep into the NCAA Tournament. It was after all a team that beat Kansas, Michigan and Michigan State on neutral courts and UNC in Chapel Hill.

-- 2016: No telling how good the 16 Devils could have been with a healthy Amile Jefferson. The team actually struggled at times early when he was healthy, but that was due to the growing pains of Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram. They were just starting to click as Jefferson was lost, leaving Duke desperately short-handed in the frontcourt. The team did reach the Sweet 16, but might have made a much deeper run with a healthy roster.

Will we look back on 2017 as another might-have-been?

Or will we be watching a juggernaut in March, barely remembering out injury concerns of November?

We all understand, its not how you start that matters, but how you finish. Coach K is coaching this team to be strong in March, not in November. Its not worth risking Jayson Tatum or Harry Giles or Marques Bolden to beat Kansas. And it wont be worth rushing any of them in a few weeks to beat Michigan State.

Especially since the team that we are now, could be good enough to win those games. What does that say about the depth of this roster that Duke could be without three freshmen lottery picks and STILL be competitive against the best teams in college basketball?

***

The first weekend of the new basketball season was pretty lackluster from an ACC perspective.

Not bad the league went 18-1. Thos only loss was by Boston College, which we knew was going to be awful this season. Oh, N.C. State and Pitt flirted with disaster at home, but each avoided a resume-busting loss.

The blah part of the equation was the low level of competition. Clemsons homecourt win over Georgia was probably the best victory of the weekend, especially with point guard Sheldon Mitchell sidelined.

There will be better tests later this week as several ACC teams start holiday tournament play. That will give us a better gage on the strength of the league.

I should note one disappointing aspect of the last week the poor start by the ACC as the early signing period opened.

Yes, Duke got Gary Trent and hopes to hear some good news in the next day or two from Wendell Carter, but the Devils are always going to recruit well.

However, one reason the ACC is as strong as it is this year is the breath of its recruiting success in recent years. Its no coincidence that six of the 2016 top 15 recruiting classes belong to the ACC.

Thats not the case this year not so far.

Late last week, ACC teams suffered a number of blows usually at the hands of the SEC.

Okay, Kentucky beating Syracuse for Nick Richards and beating UNC for P.J. Washington is no surprise. But it was disappointing to see N.C. State lose Collin Sexton (the No. 10 prospect on the country) to Alabama or to see Georgia beat FSU and Georgia Tech for Rayshaun Hammonds.

Its one thing to lose out to Kentucky on the recruiting trail, but when you see Alabama and Georgia kick ACC-b**t, its a bad sign.

Of course, there is still plenty of time to make up ground in recruiting. Plus, well get to test the theory that the SEC other than Kentucky is the place blue chip prospects go to die (or play in the NIT, which is basically the same thing). Well see if Sexton and Hammonds follow in the footsteps of Ben Simmons and Malik Newman.

Source: http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2016/11/15/13633414/this-is-who-we-are-duke-basketball-grayson-allen-coach-k

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