Michigan vs Michigan State basketball 2017 (Jan. 29)
Michigan State basketballs first-round opponent isnt much different from itself. In fact, from the outside, Miami (FL) is almost a mirror image of what the Spartans have done. While the Hurricanes didnt have as many difficult non-conference games, they lost both of their relevant ones on a neutral court to Iowa State and Florida. Maybe the major difference is that MSU actually had better wins (Wichita State, St. Johns).
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As for conference play, it was more or less the same for both teams. Miami had a four-game winning streak late in the season, but didnt win three in a row at any other time. The Canes lost tough games at home to viable opponents (notre dame, florida state) and really struggled on the road outside of an overtime win at Virginia.
And in the same fashion as Michigan State, they closed the regular season with back-to-back road losses (Virginia Tech, Florida State) to finish 10-8 in the ACC before winning their first conference tournament game (Syracuse) and then losing bad to North Carolina.
So thats how were here. The Hurricanes arguably had better wins this season, which is why they have the better seed. They beat both North Carolina and Duke at home, while also winning at Virginia. Depending how you look at the Wichita State win (KenPom No. 8), those three wins for Miami were all better than anything Michigan State did.
Roster-wise, Miami isnt all that different outside of having slightly more experience and a couple bigger guys. The Canes are led by a trio of guards that can do a little bit of everything. Davon Reed is their leading scorer and best shooter at 6-foot-6 and could cause MSUs perimeter defense some problems. Alvin Ellis will likely have to see the most of him unless Tom Izzo steps out of the box and puts Miles Bridges on him, leaving Ellis on an inferior, but slightly bigger offensive player in Anthony Lawrence. While Lawrence isnt a great offensive option, h**l likely draw the task of defending Bridges with his 6-foot-7 frame.
JaQuan Newton is the type of point guard that can get to the rim whenever he wants, similar to Nate Mason. Conveniently, hes not a great shooter, which could help Cassius Winston stay on the court, as opposed to getting beat off the dribble on every play.
Freshman Bruce Brown does a little bit of everything else for Miami as the teams third-best scorer (11.9 points), second-leading rebounder (5.8 rebounds) and second-best assister (3.2 assists). Hes kind of everything State wanted from Eron Harris this season.
Off the bench, freshman Dejan Vasiljevic will likely be their best shooter in years to come, but hes been off-and-on this season, slightly better than Matt McQuaid. That said, hes averaging just over nine points per game in the last four, so hes more reliable than McQuaid.
Outside of those five players, the Hurricanes really only use three other guys and they are all bigs with two of them (Ebuka Izundu, Dewan Huell) barely playing as Kamari Murphy averages almost 30 minutes per game. Its hard to see Jim Larranaga putting two of those three in at the same time, as those lineups are usually left for bigger teams. Of course, Larranaga could try Murphy on Bridges and then have either Izundu or Huell on Nick Ward, but that wont be the norm.
Luckily for Ward, Miami doesnt exclusively use any of its big guys as go-to offensive weapons, although it wouldnt be surprising if Murphy was made a focal point in this game, especially when Kenny Goins is in.
But similar to Michigan State, the Hurricanes can go on long scoring droughts at a time if no one is hitting shots and Newton cant get good looks near the hoop. Their offense dwindles down to passing around the perimeter and not getting much done and thats exactly why MSU is No. 67 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Miami is No. 69.
The clear edge in this game is for Miami on the defensive end. The Hurricanes are 16-0 when they allow fewer than 65 points and thats definitely a threshold that wont be easy to hit for the Spartans. However, it cant go without saying that theyve also lost four games giving up between 65 and 67 points, so take that stat for what it is.
For MSU, the issue is that Miamis defense is similar to Minnesotas. As long as Murphy can hold his ground against Ward, all of Michigan States perimeter players could struggle again. Between Brown, Reed and Lawrence, they are filled with length and athleticism. If the MSU guards repeat what they did against Minnesota last game, this one may not be worth watching.
But as with any team that struggles to find consistent offense (as weve seen with Michigan State all season), you never know whats going to happen. The Hurricanes shoot 35.9 percent from three-point range as a team and if that percentage shows up in this game, anything can happen. And if Ward finds success against Murphy down low, then the Spartans will be in business.
Granted, these statements can be said about almost every game, but this is an 8-9 matchup for a reason; these teams are incredibly similar no matter how you look at it.
Source: http://spartanavenue.com/2017/03/15/michigan-state-basketball-scouting-miami/
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