The Cast of "Finding Dory" on Jimmy Kimmel Live
Does digital data offer indicators that can be used to monitor marketing effectiveness and predict box office success even before awareness turns into intent? Movie Pilot which studies social data and box office trends analyzes this weekends new movies across Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Google (the methodology behind the numbers is laid out in the appendix below) over the seven days leading up to their release, when marketing campaigns are at their peak.
Finding Dory,DisneyMoviepilot Prediction: $131 million
Finding Dory arrives 13years after the beloved Finding Nemo delighted audiences and is set for a jaw-dropping total. The film is readyto overtake Shrek the Third ($121 million) as the biggestanimated movie opening of all time.
As always, the target for animated picsis families, so marketing has targeted parents andchildren. A selection of influencers have been posting their tours around Pixar studios on Twitter, Instagram and Snapchat. The movie has had its own Dory Snapchat lens,as well as a selection of quotes to mime along to on Dubsmash.
With more thanhalf a million tweets, Finding Dory has really cooked up a storm of nostalgia and looks to top $130 million for the weekend.
Central Intelligence,Warner BrosMoviepilot Prediction: $38 million
The big draw of Central Intelligence is the mega popular duo heading up the cast: Kevin Hart and Dwayne Johnson. The two are at the height of their popularity and there isnt a bigger hitting partnership in the social media game.
Snapchat has been a central pillar of the campaign and Johnson and Hart participated in the firstever Snapchat HQ fan Q&A. The event was broadcast via Johnson and Harts Snapchat accounts and highlighted inthe Los Angeles story, alongside a sponsored filter on release day. They also joined Twitters HQ in New York as National Best Friends Day ambassadors. The duokicked off a Twitter Q&A with a live Periscope video inviting friends to ask questions, as well as live streaming intros to fan screenings around the country.
Finally, a custom mobile game was launchedtitled Central IntelliDASH in addition to a custom gif creator. Fans were encouraged to share and challenge friends to the Central Intelligence mobile game experience while playing as either Johnson orHart. They were also able to insert themselves into clips from the movie via the Central IntelliGIF creator.
While families will go seeFinding Dory, everybody else should flock to Central Intelligence so this should earnup to $40 million this weekend.
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Phil Walden is Director of Digital Strategy at Movie Pilot, a social media driven movie community reaching 15 million users every month. Based on community data, Movie Pilot helps studios to optimize their digital media campaigns, identifying, analyzing and activating the right audiences. The company works with studios like Focus Features, 20th Century Fox, Sony and A24.
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